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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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What I think is interesting is that the classic model of the +NAO leading/ .. conducting MDR, is failing to relay TCs west before succumbing either to shear or recurve.  That former mode of the circulation tends to favor both. But we're losing Peter ( most likely ...) to shear, and rose appears destined to either join the westerlies or wonder aimlessly over the eastern limb of the Sargasso Sea..

98L comes through the birthing canal less than 10 deg from the Equator, and still we hedge whether it makes the key slot lat/lon.  Noted, this morning's guidance pops back west but, doing so when the NAO is negative..

These are more at anti corollary behaviors. 

There could the a 'spatial lag' so to speak.  The NAO isn't schedule to flip signs until about 4 days from now. It'll be in free fall at that time if the CPC's latest guidance is correct. I wonder if the deeper MDR isn't "sensing" the exertion of the NAO phase change by D4.  Maybe in this sense, that still delivers 98L, west.

Either way, both Peter and Rose were red headed neglected by the +NAO either way. Lol

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 Good news for turtlehurricane as his boredom may have a chance to end! Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S as hurricanes, 1 member is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run.

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

ecmen_12_mslps_na_h_0360.png.1449d6175629e954546a82b214392c0a.png

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The bulk of the 06z Euro ensembles are still keeping it southward on a track into the islands.  Euro still seems to be the outlier on the southern track though.  Euro also seems to not have been doing well with these MDR storms prior to development.

 

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The ECMWF is obviously catching everyone's eye here. It's important to remember that placement of ECONUS trough vs WAR with regards to land interaction beyond the Antilles is still beyond the midrange and clearly subject to change. That being said, if the door shuts for potential Sam around 150 hrs to escape poleward, then there is the potential for some type of phase interaction setup that would come into play. This would be dependent on amplification of the WAR and position/timing of Sam. This type of pattern isn't one of a recurve but of a TC being captured and driven very quickly into the high latitudes around the stationary mid-trough parked into the ECONUS interior. Again, way too far out only to speculate, but there it is... The strong block over ECAN is heading downstream towards New Foundland, which would spell trouble.8b4fe65f14224b23f93b7d124042ceaf.gif

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  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Major Hurricane Sam

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