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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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34 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It really doesnt look all that different. This include tropical storms. The other graphic just included hurricanes. 

Sam Historic 2.PNG

I know only two hurricanes have struck Texas in October in the last century, but now that I see that TS making landfall near BPT, and with warmer than normal SSTs, I'm all in on a Texas landfall as a hurricane

 

Just kidding.  But it is possible...

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I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child.  I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities.  If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there.

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TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.   TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

 

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Just now, thunderbolt said:

TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.   TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

 

Can one of the moderators please change the title to a  Tropical storm Sam

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52 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Not happening. Not even close bro.

Totally agree. This will be a major. 

6 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Can one of the moderators please change the title to a  Tropical storm Sam

Chaos when I don’t start the thread :P 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Better than the recent slop.

Yea could be a threat to the antilles and bermuda, but idk, a landfall seems unlikely with the way that the east coast trough/ cut off ULL is modeled. 

Need a more progressive pattern and that system to lift out and let a ridge build in over top in order to get a bonafide landfall imo

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child.  I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities.  If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there.

Were you there for Gloria? My dad is from North Babylon and suffolk got hit really hard wind damage (wind was worse than Sandy according to him). Not sure but I think the Nassau Suffolk border was also the border between who got hurricane force winds and who didn’t on LI. I’m only 21 so Sandy is the worst storm I’ve ever witnessed

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Tropical Storm Sam
23 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Were you there for Gloria? My dad is from North Babylon and suffolk got hit really hard wind damage (wind was worse than Sandy according to him). Not sure but I think the Nassau Suffolk border was also the border between who got hurricane force winds and who didn’t on LI. I’m only 21 so Sandy is the worst storm I’ve ever witnessed

Eye of Gloria went right over NB. I was 8, I’ll never forget it. 

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; for the last couple of years they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage.

Gfs took a step towards the Euro 

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Begins to recurve at the last possible moment lol

That’s still very close with ridging over the top and cutoff to the west. Very very close.

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

At the last minute a strong trough dives into southeast Canada, eroding the ridge, saving the day.  We know the 7-10 day upper flow will continue to flop around, though.

Yeah. Ensembles will be interesting. Not calling for a landfall lol but anomalous SE Canada ridging and a cutoff are fairly significant red flags, even at this range. 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The WAR will win the day as it has every time. The fact that it's so far west Day 9/10 should worry people.

So true brother. Those 12z Euro ensembles are just coming out are revealing to say the least. Being west or east of the mean track at 9 days is a good thing if you like tropical cyclones.

https://tinyurl.com/2f95ehuk

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I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast.  Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out.

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3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast.  Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out.

I have never seen a tropical cyclone track over the day 9 forecasted position. The pattern doesn't support a recurve it's more like a reload sequence in the flow and you will see the WAR flex (seasonal trend).

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3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast.  Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out.

It isn't wishcasting it's assessing the pattern. 

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  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Major Hurricane Sam

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