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IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021


wdrag
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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM did very well. Quite a few of its runs had a swath of 8 to 10 inch rains going across central NJ.

I don't think an assessment of which models performed best is quite so simple. Some were right about the initial bands staying NW but wrong about the quick hitting main show and vice versa. There were different aspects - duration, placement, intensity etc that each model had partly right and partly wrong. I don't think any guidance really nailed the evolution perfectly. And which run(s) do we make the judgement based on? As is often the case, some kind of combination would have worked best.

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

south shore of nassau getting hit hard too, news 12 just said everyone on long island will have 4 inches plus before it's all over

 

I don’t know about everyone, probably only nassau, much of suffolk has an inch or less still and the bulk of the remaining rain will miss besides maybe nw suffolk

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Indeed, runoff usually lasts 24 hours after rain stops so rivers won’t crest until tomorrow night.

I'm right around the corner from two bridges, been here over 30 years,  this won't crest until saturday or sunday

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8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

Those river forecasts are grossly underestimated at this point. They don't even come close to lining up with the current trajectories unfortunately. 

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I had to let water out of the pool because it runit over...My rain guage which I think is a jinx because I started using it for Henri...Since then NYC must of had the wettest three week period on record...or close to it...After this storm that guage is going back into retirement...I'll bring it out for snow chances and see if it works that well with snow...

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