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IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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psv88
psv88

My friend works in management for the LIRR and said they had no warning the floods were coming...the meteorologists, and the models, were highlighting the potential for devastating flooding for days.

bluewave
bluewave
Allsnow
Allsnow

13 inches of rain in about 6 hours here in Metuchen. Everything is basically flooded from basements to roadways. I was completely wrong about this event and it’s the worst I have ever scene in this ar

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - any thoughts on river flooding levels for the Raritan and other major rivers?  Floyd type levels or less.  Seems like there was a bit more rain in Floyd (10-14" common in the Raritan watershed vs. 7-10" now, by my quick inspection), but antecedent conditions before Floyd were much drier, so maybe it'll be close.  

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

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ForestHillWx

ForestHillWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The river flooding is going to have to be near historic, right?

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

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ForestHillWx

ForestHillWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

But look at the current obs, compared to forecast. The trajectory could easily rival Floyd. I don’t wish that on anyone. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

Floyd always gets downplayed for some reason.....granted it happened at the tail end of a major drought

 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, ForestHillWx said:

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

Indeed, runoff usually lasts 24 hours after rain stops so rivers won’t crest until tomorrow night.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM did very well. Quite a few of its runs had a swath of 8 to 10 inch rains going across central NJ.

I don't think an assessment of which models performed best is quite so simple. Some were right about the initial bands staying NW but wrong about the quick hitting main show and vice versa. There were different aspects - duration, placement, intensity etc that each model had partly right and partly wrong. I don't think any guidance really nailed the evolution perfectly. And which run(s) do we make the judgement based on? As is often the case, some kind of combination would have worked best.

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Intensewind002

Intensewind002

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

south shore of nassau getting hit hard too, news 12 just said everyone on long island will have 4 inches plus before it's all over

 

I don’t know about everyone, probably only nassau, much of suffolk has an inch or less still and the bulk of the remaining rain will miss besides maybe nw suffolk

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MikeS

MikeS

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

Those river forecasts are grossly underestimated at this point. They don't even come close to lining up with the current trajectories unfortunately. 

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