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IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021


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20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - any thoughts on river flooding levels for the Raritan and other major rivers?  Floyd type levels or less.  Seems like there was a bit more rain in Floyd (10-14" common in the Raritan watershed vs. 7-10" now, by my quick inspection), but antecedent conditions before Floyd were much drier, so maybe it'll be close.  

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

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4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The river flooding is going to have to be near historic, right?

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

But look at the current obs, compared to forecast. The trajectory could easily rival Floyd. I don’t wish that on anyone. 

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

Floyd always gets downplayed for some reason.....granted it happened at the tail end of a major drought

 

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Just now, ForestHillWx said:

I think NJwx85 makes the best point; the Passaic will back the tributary rivers up; exacerbating the problem. 

That river meets the Whippany and Rockaway rivers before the Pompton. It’s a tremendous volume of water that drains a large part of northern NJ. And that’s just the Passaic. The Raritan river watershed will be worse in my opinion based on the numbers so far. Downtown Bound Brook is going to be annihilated. 

Indeed, runoff usually lasts 24 hours after rain stops so rivers won’t crest until tomorrow night.

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