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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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10 minutes ago, das said:

Now that the storm is ashore, a slightly banter-ish comment: that WebCam in Grand Isle deserves the storm chaser of the year award. It’s getting sandblasted from the backside now that the water has receded.

It's grainy and pointed at the ground though. 

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6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Center is technically still 1/2 over water with most of the "land" probably covered by surge. I would expect noticeable degradation in the next 1-2 hours as the center finally gets fully onto dry land.

Yes obviously. But many times degradation is much quicker and already taking place. 

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Forward section of eyewall likely to be near or just west of Kenner LA within two-three hours and 20-30 miles east of Baton Rouge by 7 pm.

That is based on 12z RGEM upper low positions verifying. This is not quite worst case scenario for New Orleans which would be in the first concentric band as of present configuration. MSY is closer to Kenner than most of the city however. 

It's a slight break for Baton Rouge if that track verifies as they would be on the weaker side of the eyewall or just outside it. However the heaviest rainfalls are likely to be in a zone 20-50 miles west of the track and those could amount to 12-15 inches given the slowing forward speed. River flooding will become a bigger part of the story by Monday. 

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3 PM CDT N.O. stations show a continued increase in winds and rapid drop in pressure along with a continued very strong gradient reflected by  the 0.10" difference between the airport and lakefront:

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  

N.O. INTL ARPT RAIN      77  74  90 E46G67    29.37F FOG                
N.O. DWNTWN HE RAIN 77 74 90 E24G40 29.41F FOG
N.O. LAKEFRONT HVY RAIN  77  75  93 E51G72    29.47F VSB 1/4   

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17 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm starting to get skeptical of this hitting 130 before landfall. Ida really running out of time. If it doesn't really bombs away in next 6-10hrs I'm thinking a low to mid cat 3 more likely. Regardless of whether it's a cat 3 or 4, surge and rain will still bring a lot of destruction along with the 110+ gusts. 

Aged like milk

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