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Major Hurricane Ida


WxWatcher007
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Looks like basing off of the latest IR imagery, including the image above, that Ida is close to completing whatever "cycle" this was that cleared out the eye as deep convection is nearly wrapped around the entire circulation again.

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Ida is the most impressive cat 1 I have ever seen 

There’s no way this things a cat 1 anymore we just need Recon to get in there and confirm this. Probably somewhere in the 95 to 105 cat 2 range right now but looks to be ramping up pretty quickly. We will likely have a major on our hands by tonight. 

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Zeta was the strongest tropical system to DIRECTLY hit downtown New Orleans since Katrina. In fact Zeta may have had stronger winds in downtown New Orleans. I'll be surprised if MSY gusts to hurricane force with Ida. It's tracking too far west. Property values are highest in this region along the MS gulf coast with multimillion dollar casinos in Biloxi. The farthest west this goes will make the insurance companies very happy. 

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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Euro and gfs ticked east at 12z. To me, this is Prob the most important 36 hours of hurricane watching since 05. A storm this size moving in this direction is going to pile up sooo much water in La and even MS. This is the storm slosh models were invented for.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

Euro and gfs ticked east at 12z. To me, this is Prob the most important 36 hours of hurricane watching since 05. A storm this size moving in this direction is going to pile up sooo much water in La and even MS. This is the storm slosh models were invented for.

Yeah. We have to remember, most of Hurricane Laura's surge was over uninhabited wildlife preserve areas. This will likely be different.

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4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro and gfs ticked east at 12z. To me, this is Prob the most important 36 hours of hurricane watching since 05. A storm this size moving in this direction is going to pile up sooo much water in La and even MS. This is the storm slosh models were invented for.

 

In general any landfalling cane in the US comes in a tad right of what you expect, even at 3-6 hours out because they'll tend to dance a bit to avoid land before coming in.  We even see this with small islands where they'll deviate to the right by 10 miles or so

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On a regional basis this could be higher impact than Katrina, where all storm surge came in from the east and affected mostly areas southeast of New Orleans rather than west. This one is about 50 miles further west, and storm surge will come into regions on the west side of the Mississippi but could also repeat Katrina's surge into the southeast. Also it looks like it could be stronger in terms of wind gusts. 

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6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It will tick east a little unfortunately putting NO in the NE quadrant upon LF. Bad news.

 

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think if makes LF around Port Fourchon. 

 

9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro and gfs ticked east at 12z. To me, this is Prob the most important 36 hours of hurricane watching since 05. A storm this size moving in this direction is going to pile up sooo much water in La and even MS. This is the storm slosh models were invented for.

They usually do when it’s rounding into a NA trough from the GOM. Models tend to underestimate it.

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I am a little skeptical that Ida intensified as much as shown in the intermediate NHC advisory. Eyewall convection still seems really messy and disorganized, and the eye has recently become partially obscured again. The last set of recon obs did not support the objective satellite estimates, and I am not sure anything significant has changed since then. It may be getting closer to the point where a RI process can begin, though. Still definitely a chance that an RI episode occurs tonight and it comes in hot tomorrow, but it still seems like kind of a mess this afternoon. 

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3 minutes ago, thunderbird12 said:

I am a little skeptical that Ida intensified as much as shown in the intermediate NHC advisory. Eyewall convection still seems really messy and disorganized, and the eye has recently become partially obscured again. The last set of recon obs did not support the objective satellite estimates, and I am not sure anything significant has changed since then. It may be getting closer to the point where a RI process can begin, though. Still definitely a chance that an RI episode occurs tonight and it comes in hot tomorrow, but it still seems like kind of a mess this afternoon. 

That reminds me, after Gustav in 2008 crossed Cuba it never got it's act together.  Hoping the same for Ida although it's very unlikely.

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17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

On a regional basis this could be higher impact than Katrina, where all storm surge came in from the east and affected mostly areas southeast of New Orleans rather than west. This one is about 50 miles further west, and storm surge will come into regions on the west side of the Mississippi but could also repeat Katrina's surge into the southeast. Also it looks like it could be stronger in terms of wind gusts. 

I don't mean to downplay the potential surge from Ida, but at this point in the gulf Katrina was an enormous 902 mb cat 5 monster which was pushing much more water than Ida is now or probably will ever. We'll probably never see anything match Katrina's surge.

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2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I don't mean to downplay the potential surge from Ida, but at this point in the gulf Katrina was an enormous 902 mb cat 5 monster which was pushing much more water than Ida is now or probably will ever. We'll probably never see anything match Katrina's surge.

Good points. But who knows what's in store intensity wise tonight and tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I don't mean to downplay the potential surge from Ida, but at this point in the gulf Katrina was an enormous 902 mb cat 5 monster which was pushing much more water than Ida is now or probably will ever. We'll probably never see anything match Katrina's surge.

Been 16 years since Katrina. Sea level has risen ~3 inches since then. You need less surge each year and there is more water around. 3 inches might not sound like much, but it does make a difference.

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1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Katrina strengthened really fast.. things can change.. we still have a shot at matching Katrina.

You guys all need to understand that a hurricane's strength is not simply defined by the storm's sustained winds it has but rather the accumulated kinetic energy it holds and how deep its pressure is. Katrina only made landfall as a category 3 but the immense amount of energy it had retained produced storm surge well above that threshold. 

The danger with Ida is having her make landfall while still strengthening as a major rather than producing Katrina-level surge. This will not be Katrina but it can be its own disaster. 

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I am surprised by how tight the trajectory cluster of all models is now still some 24-30 hours away from landfall.   Usually we get somewhat greater spread and more  outliers, but I don’t see that here. SE Louisiana is in for a beating.  

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1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

You guys all need to understand that a hurricane's strength is not simply defined by the storm's sustained winds it has but rather the accumulated kinetic energy it holds and how deep its pressure is. Katrina only made landfall as a category 3 but the immense amount of energy it had retained produced storm surge well above that threshold. 

The danger with Ida is having her make landfall while still strengthening as a major rather than producing Katrina-level surge. This will not be Katrina but it can be its own disaster. 

Ike was same way in 2008

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12 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Been 16 years since Katrina. Sea level has risen ~3 inches since then. You need less surge each year and there is more water around. 3 inches might not sound like much, but it does make a difference.

Land subsidence is also an issue for a city that is already below sea level.  Rates of subsidence have increased from 1cm/year UP 2in/year in some locals. Take it for what it's worth, but when engineering the new levees, this increased rate was not planned for. The project itself was contracted to be a continuously updated project.  Another topping event, in a worst case scenario would not bode well for a city that already has it's fair share of problems. 

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