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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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31 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I had to google pre but we had several torrential down pours here today and my guess about an inch in the last 8 hours based off the flood in our garage… wish our rain gauge didn’t float away

 

26 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

PRE?

Predecessor Rain Event

In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

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50 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

so the higher resolution the model, the further east? Guess which one I'll be betting on

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

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53 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

i guess we'll see!

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7 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

I think you’re going to be correct. Good call. Radar looks impressive getting ready to rotate up through here the next 3-5 hrs. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Radar looks fantastic. What a look. Really intensified. GFS was awful

This.  Not sure what kinds of rates folks are getting but the radar presentation is very impressive to say the least.  Crushed.

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