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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


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Probably need to consider that late mid range look in the GFS off the SE U.S. coast. 

That's -NAO incarnate with that easterly flow setting up.  It's a region of enhanced cyclogenic properties in having warm easterly theta-e long fetch piling into a region with relatively cooler anticyclone ..stalled and anchored over New England and the lower Martime.   A slowly evolving cyclogen that gradually phase transitions hybrid sas some climate presentation to go with theory.  .. for now, most favorable region is S of the Va Capes and NE of Tal. FL

The 006 z GFS has the same sort of cyclogenic synoptic evolution, but actually pulls a real TC into the mess of it.  Regardless, all models indicate the evolution of a large lower troposphere blocking anticyclone N, with that eventual inverted trough and easterly flow into that region. 



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