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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not for that area.  I think that is far fetched here.

Going to need some work for sure.  West and south track adjustments and benchmarks in the short/med range, maybe on the faster edge of the envelope...combined with some slight adjustments N and W with that closed low near the tidewater VA area by D7-8, we're in business.  :damage:

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here. 

Even the ensembles can be wrong this far out. Long ways to go and good practice for the winter. 

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even the ensembles can be wrong this far out. Long ways to go and good practice for the winter. 

I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not.

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m going to enjoy this run until a met comes in and decides to ruin my hopes and dreams 

took about 6 minutes.

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not for that area.  I think that is far fetched here.

 

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10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

1938 seemed to have longitude in it's favor. This one is going to be a lot further east to start, pulling it back is going to be tougher. 

I wasn't trying to say 38 is coming.  If it's farther east it could be a problem for NB/NS or beyond.  Interesting background similarities there, at least it would appear.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least winter tracking bares fruit

I hear you. I have the benefit of being able to chase US tropical, so for a good enough event I can personally see the tracking payoff. I would have been in Louisiana for Ida if I didn’t have a family commitment I couldn’t move.

I enjoy whatever falls in winter, but the older I get the more big dog or bust I become. I can’t muster the energy to track minor winter stuff closely anymore, but I get it though—I track Atlantic swirls before they’re even invests lol. 

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11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

0z GFS doesn’t seem to have the cutoff low at all. It’s not a recurve out to sea but rather it’s due north into Canada, very safely away from the NE.

 

Same with the CMC. Comically different.  Which means I’m sure the 0z euro will bring this right into NYC lol

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