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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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8 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

the CMC is lost with 96L lol

All of them are... Hard to say what that is out there if just being model-reliant.   

I think the present now's argue that it is purely tropical for starters... Has to be.  There is no source of dry air/non-tropical vertical thermal plumb along any radii within what is clearly now evidenced, a closing circulation. There was a bit of a weak TUTT in the vicinity up until 2 .. 3 days ago, and either a wave or a self-sustaining convection contained sort of 'out lasted' its decay.   And now in addition, there are CU fractals/structures moving curvi-linearly toward the E, into that N-S stationary wall of CBs, indicating there has to be a lowering pressure in the center of that mass whether NHC believes it or not...  That's probably it.  If it keeps up with lowering shear and improving outflow, what's to stop. And when it goes, not sure I see what the mitigating factors are/reticence by the models. 

I wonder .. The models may not even know it is there yet.  I wonder if what we are really seeing with the general consensus for broadly constructing, shallow circulation ...or even an inverted trough, is/are based purely on exhausting numerical instability/favorable kinematics off the EC.  In this sense... until they are forced to see a materialized cyclone actually existing in the initialization nets, then we get the coherent nucleus finally.    This could be a candidate for a sampling mission..

The present track of this would-be cyclone, as of now in the models, appears to really be tracking along with the WAR circulation between the lower sigma and pehraps beneath 700 mb trajectories.  But a deeper vertically integrated system might not follow those stream lines and may end up steered more E anyway. Hard to say.. but looking at the Euro and GFS orientations, the 500 mb is moving more N out along 70 W, but then turns in time and exits  ENE trajectory by 72 hours so ....  Maybe spending this time typing more out of virtue to the science of it, versus much risk for anyone ... heh.  But, if a system develops and does get more prominent it can change the sounding, one, but either way, if that development occurs and it pops N of 35N prior to 70 hours, it could come further W before climo sends it to the grave.  So lot's needs to roll off the dice here ..but that 'seems' to be the deal with this thing - I'm sure another analysis out there disagrees. 

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ll go with M. J ventrice’s Take any day over Hazelton (and weeklies) on where it’s favorable / unfavorable Regarding tropics 

Yeah the rest of month looks meh. In October, it may be different..especially beyond first week. 

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