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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

 that red area off the Carolinas will be in Nova Scotia by the time a depression finally pops lol 

 96L ... simpler terms, the hot Invest coding on that may have been inflated some all along. NHC can't really really be that certain with ROA to PWM setting by-and-by waiting for an over due Climate Change tsunamis of their own.

Longer thoughts:  It is not difficult to surmise the belated/apparent limiting factors in its developing.

Shear

Looking at the various sat presentations/loops therein .. the anvil debris streamers off the CB exhausts are all stripping away toward the NW-N-NE ...with no radial pull toward the southern arc.  That means that it is imposing from SW to NE across the zygote circulation, and it is/has been doing so in the guidance ever since.

I'm not sure if this is true, but observing NHC's Invest labeling practices in recent years: It exposes a suspicious pattern. It really does appear they've adopted a policy that is "hand-cuffed to whatever guidance indicates" modus operandi over recent years. They seldom trigger an Invest based upon now, or live observation methodology.  Some kind of super cluster of modeling pops one out of the ether, then they do so.  I guess the days of waiting for observation methods to suggest a circulation might be coalescing, are gone.  They feel their models are formulatively accurate enough at emerging these regions of interest, so why wait that out. 

Or, it could just be that the modeling tech has just become that good, and they are actually competing with the old observation methods - and probably losing, too.  But one can see their headaches with 96L.  Days ago ...when this modeling was all there was and this was more relevant, civility lurked immediately astride the 96L drift... tauntingly, unknowingly what were its destinies.  I'm sure at the time there was a handful of ensemble members we don't get to sate our addiction by seeing ( LOL ), pummeling into the NY Bite with Cat 3 ..and on and so on.  Those outlier model ensemble members cannot be absolutely ruled out.  Meanwhile, the consensus was that shear might be present ...  So, they compromised, and goosed 96L all the way to the blood soaked OMG X, look-out, to raise awareness, bide time, all the while the more likely solution of a big open bag of meaningless runs its course.

This thing also - however - has a bit of a suggestion of partially transitioning into a hybrid or some thing SE of NS...and some guidance pig deepen it there while stalling it...and that's probably a worthy headache result for shipping/Marine interests, so there's that.

95L ..back farther out there in the MDR, sort of evinced their pattern of labeling invests.  The Euro ( of all guidance ..headscratcher) was torquing up 95L almost immediately upon leaving the coast Sierra Leone, over 10 days ago.  Why back, it was consistent too - that D9 ... then 8 ... 6 days out, when that emerge off the coast of west Africa, it was going to be aggressive and coherent, becoming a deeper TC right away.  NHC began yelllow-X with that 10/80 type ratio for short vs longer term development odds, when 95L was still scheduled 4 days outfrom leaving the coast - that's a pretty long lead for an Invest.  But, it helped that other guidance had picked up on it, too.

Then, it didn't evolve.  It's still tending to be a weakly rotating gyre with heavily shear tipped convection stripping off toward the west... and over that time they've swelled its odds through red, and now settled back to orange.  You can see across the behavior that they are "sort of" allowing the observation method to invalidate the models from that direction ... and since this thing has proven beneath guidance panache, ..it's kind of interesting.

 

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Just some abstractions and observations -

I don't get that 'special' sort of rube and Taro card feeling about this season  ...  which, now that we are officially at the apex of, watching over a buckshot spray bullshit out there ..it's sort of not lending to any gathering in those creepy crawling sensations of grandeur yet to come.

It's not the most responsible or 'empirically' scientific method, no. But it is shockingly competitive with Colorado State University, nonetheless... at least, I think -haha  

I was actually reading some other papered work that was integrating this HC expansion shit ... you know, one turn of phrase that stuck with me as interesting was similar to, "..With the expanding Hadley Cell, the circulation definition of it is weaker while growing in areal dimension..."  (not a direct quote but in spirit)

If that is true, it may explain - or offer a trigger point for hypothesis... - why these systems go from TD to Category 4 or 5 ...with fewer sustaining Cat 2. I'm sure there are those that do... (calm down knee jerk skeptics). Talkin' tendencies.. If we wanna put it another way, systems either sputter, or tend to go crazy, with fewer in-betweens.

It seems that the increased entropy within the confines of the HC space, means that crippling developmental mechanics may be replaced rather abruptly by excessively favorable regimes, ..huge swings in potential, like all at once?  Champagne corked and ready to go, they are just waiting to be released.  Entropy means discord and fractal/chaos prone.  Lower organization in a systemic framework. ... I.e., increased variability.  Such that the models might be more likely to have a robust 95L, then as we get closer ... shear materializes more so from the former "uncertainty principles" - not the same as that of QM. ..   Meanwhile, the handling of the westerlies E of the Rockies to NE of Bermuda is particularly abysmal right now in the guidance. ..It's not just the HC entropy itself By virtue of that - likely - being true, it would mean the amorphous trajectory/boundaries where it releases identity into the westerlies, is also increasingly error prone.  

 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just some abstractions and observations -

I don't get that 'special' sort of rube and Taro card feeling about this season  ...  which, now that we are officially at the apex of, watching over a buckshot spray bullshit out there ..it's sort of not lending to any gathering in those creepy crawling sensations of grandeur yet to come.

It's not the most responsible or 'empirically' scientific method, no. But it is shockingly competitive with Colorado State University, nonetheless... at least, I think -haha  

I was actually reading some other papered work that was integrating this HC expansion shit ... you know, one turn of phrase that stuck with me as interesting was similar to, "..With the expanding Hadley Cell, the circulation definition of it is weaker while growing in areal dimension..."  (not a direct quote but in spirit)

If that is true, it may explain - or offer a trigger point for hypothesis... - why these systems go from TD to Category 4 or 5 ...with fewer sustaining Cat 2. I'm sure there are those that do... (calm down knee jerk skeptics). Talkin' tendencies.. If we wanna put it another way, systems either sputter, or tend to go crazy, with fewer in-betweens.

It seems that the increased entropy within the confines of the HC space, means that crippling developmental mechanics may be replaced rather abruptly by excessively favorable regimes, ..huge swings in potential, like all at once?  Champagne corked and ready to go, they are just waiting to be released.  Entropy means discord and fractal/chaos prone.  Lower organization in a systemic framework. ... I.e., increased variability.  Such that the models might be more likely to have a robust 95L, then as we get closer ... shear materializes more so from the former "uncertainty principles" - not the same as that of QM. ..   Meanwhile, the handling of the westerlies E of the Rockies to NE of Bermuda is particularly abysmal right now in the guidance. ..It's not just the HC entropy itself By virtue of that - likely - being true, it would mean the amorphous trajectory/boundaries where it releases identity into the westerlies, is also increasingly error prone.  

 

Goes along with the theme of more extremes that we observed in snow events.

Interesting...

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13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really interesting how 1938 has stood the test of time despite better/more dense observation data in the decades since. 

 

I wonder what the elevation differences are between the Cuba site and Blue Hill ...

Blue Hill's observatory/station site is some 630+ feet. The surrounding topography makes it a uniquely exposed site.  You go to the observatory up there and you can see to the eternal horizon in all direction, unless it is clear enough to make out vastly distant serrated geographies, to far to matter.  There are simply no competing elevations in the region, ...such that wind is rather ideally unobstructed. 

Cuba does have some elevations.  I'm just curious if site-circumstance helped Blue Hill achieve it's glory, but the Cuba one may have "needed the bigger anomaly" to get to the measurement.  I'm always in a quandary over the the advantage vs disadvantage stuff - because I see things benefiting or hurting, and I also suspect it belies aspects of total causality when this happens.  It's annoying ...

It doesn't mean Blue Hill's wind didn't happen.  It's a sticking up with no wind breaks between it and the eternal expanse in the x-coordinate in all direction... A rare deep pressure anomaly accelerated in motion to speed that exceeds its decay rate, put that location up there with a huge advantage in this sense.   It's like a baby born on 2nd based with all it's peers still trying out to even get chance at bat in life.  

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn. If there ever was a cane pattern for us, it's this coming weekend. There's always next year.

Lol, was just thinking that ... how it seems really quite lovely for suckin' one up, but there's no prom date -

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

It’s my dream to move to the area someday..We’ll see if I can make it happen 

my folks are down there during the fall/winter/spring-it's great-they're on the eastern side of town which is all new at this point.    I've been down a few times-great area.  

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I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October. 

cfs.gif

 

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17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October. 

cfs.gif

 

I leave on 10/8 and will be in Africa until just prior to Halloween, so I'll try to send some  nice waves across lol

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18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October. 

cfs.gif

 

As Mike Ventrice alluded to on Twitter (I believe the guy is one of the best regarding identifying background favorable/ unfavorable conditions for the tropics consistently w 2 week lead time ( the Suppressed state of the CCKW passes the eastern Atlantic this week and opens up a westerly trade duct , which also is conductive to enhanced TUTT activity , higher shear , sinking air . Poor Conditions 

I have seen models appear clueless a week or so ahead of the suppressed or Enhanced phases of significant CCKW passages and then Countless times they start seeing the conditions better and adjust modeled development “accordingly”As they are a little late to the game I’m picking up the CCKW state 

Development of Peter and Rose and now the latest Cape Verde “Red area of interest” should continue to see models adapt to generally unfavorable conditions 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As Mike Ventrice alluded to on Twitter (I believe the guy is one of the best regarding identifying background favorable/ unfavorable conditions for the tropics consistently w 2 week lead time ( the Suppressed state of the CCKW passes the eastern Atlantic this week and opens up a westerly trade duct , which also is conductive to enhanced TUTT activity , higher shear , sinking air . Poor Conditions 

I have seen models appear clueless a week or so ahead of the suppressed or Enhanced phases of significant CCKW passages and then Countless times they start seeing the conditions better and adjust modeled development “accordingly”As they are a little late to the game I’m picking up the CCKW state 

Development of Peter and Rose and now the latest Cape Verde “Red area of interest” should continue to see models adapt to generally unfavorable conditions 

Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol

i thought it was the GFS frankly ... It really never had "Peter out" more than just that - petering out - other that two model cycles.

but, I don't have to be right about that either.   lol. I just seem to recall the GFS loops at Fl State's only having Pete really for two runs, last week, ..one was near miss, too. 

I think tho to be fair - imho - the models in general did well.  

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My wife just got her green card, so we are going to see her family....she hasn't seen her parents in person for about 6 years.

OH that's cool dude!   where in ?

Any chance to see the wild life... you could be very lucky. 

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH that's cool dude!   where in ?

Any chance to see the wild life... you could be very lucky. 

Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.

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