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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro was throwing out 6-8” amounts days in advance. I thought it was modeled extremely well. And then when the nam was within range I recall seeing 8-10”+ amounts in SE PA into NJ. That then moved towards NYC. 

Yeah I thought models had big rains of half a foot for widespread areas well in advance.  I think the bigger thing is people see it on models and are like “nah it really doesn’t think 6-8 inches falls widespread, it’ll be localized to convection.”  

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51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I thought models had big rains of half a foot for widespread areas well in advance.  I think the bigger thing is people see it on models and are like “nah it really doesn’t think 6-8 inches falls widespread, it’ll be localized to convection.”  

This very similar repulse and response mode seemed to take place prior to the Dec 2008 event.

Off-topic ... but the NAM began flagging -2.5 C at the 950 mb ( like right over tree top level) along the spine of the lower Monads ( which by geographic extension includes the Worcester Hills, btw ), WHILE the grid was also QPF'ing 3.5" of rain. 

It seemed that devastating ice storm was outright f'ing there all along. 

I'm not saying no one took it seriously - the general threat for aspect. No.  There were warnings ... But I'm pretty sure the accretion/warning was .5 to .75" of ice rhyming, basically low-balling the shit glue out of what took place.  And it was jaw dropping ... pretty much exactly what the NAM said:  less than freezing + heavy rain. 

 

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It's funny ... we spend decades of man-brain power, and probably billions in tech evolution, in order to sample and eventually predict the environment.

Spend 10 minutes over a cup of coffee doubting what it tells us as over-cooked conceited hams - lol.

I've done it too...  Sometimes I admit that I just don't like the look of x-y-z handling in a-b-c model run.  'That's not gonna do that.'  'What's this f'n model doing out of nowhere with this'    Pick the tossing internal monologue...

Thing is, sometimes .. yeah, we are right to doubt. Certainly, pushing standard deviations should strain believability and force some thought. Heh.

But I have noticed just like 2007, .. "Ida" ... just because the specter of model cinema can't be so, is no M.O.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny ... we spend decades of man-brain power, and probably billions in tech evolution, in order to sample and eventually predict the environment.

Spend 10 minutes over a cup of coffee doubting what it tells us as over-cooked conceited hams - lol.

I've done it too...  Sometimes I admit that I just don't like the look of x-y-z handling in a-b-c model run.  'That's not gonna do that.'  'What's this f'n model doing out of nowhere with this'    Pick the tossing internal monologue...

Thing is, sometimes .. yeah, we are right to doubt. Certainly, pushing standard deviations should strain believability and force some thought. Heh.

But I have noticed just like 2007, .. "Ida" ... just because the specter of model cinema can't be so, is no M.O.

Yeah I agree with you fully.  Many times after an event folks are like “wtf just happened?” And in fact it was modeled very well, we just chose not to believe it.  Like a high wind event where the 10-m wind progs show 60-70mph gusts but we see that in a lot of events that never materialize…. Until that one event levels forests and knocks out power for a week.

Then when folks are like that was poorly modeled, someone will have the ECMWF surface wind progs showing devastation from 5 days out.  We just mentally toss those so often that one will slip through.

 Same with big ice… how many random model ice maps of 1-3” do we see in a winter on those vendor maps with numbers like 1.53” and 2.09” ice dotting the stations?  Plenty.  One of them will be correct sometime :lol:.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree with you fully.  Many times after an event folks are like “wtf just happened?” And in fact it was modeled very well, we just chose not to believe it.  Like a high wind event where the 10-m wind progs show 60-70mph gusts but we see that in a lot of events that never materialize…. Until that one event levels forests and knocks out power for a week.

Then when folks are like that was poorly modeled, someone will have the ECMWF surface wind progs showing devastation from 5 days out.  We just mentally toss those so often that one will slip through.

 Same with big ice… how many random model ice maps of 1-3” do we see in a winter on those vendor maps with numbers like 1.53” and 2.09” ice dotting the stations?  Plenty.  One of them will be correct sometime :lol:.

Every extreme event we have had was underplayed from Oct 12 to Feb 13 to Harvey in Texas, Pete Repete.  Its time to take  the extreme model forecasts  3 days out  seriously and plan accordingly.  If they don’t pan out, oh well but if they do we are all prepared. Modeling does well when the extreme out of Climo events happen. That is why I suggested that IDA be hit hard as a tropical entity.  People listen as they have been trained to the word tropical. Scientific semantics ruins impact statements 

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Right now ... Nicholas looks like a classic Category 5 "mimic" on IR.

The radar out of CRP ...that's you know, NHC has their methods and agenda and it is what it is, but frankly ... the scary specter of insidious black and pink vomit on IR looks more so like a convective artifact.  Only weak indication of real organization on objective radar scans as it seems.

I remember back year ago, there was one of those insane -100C top canopies sustaining itself over the Caribbean, and NHC had it all way to to 65 mph TS ... the works.  RECON finally gets in there ...

TD with a weakly closed/vaguely discerned west wind where the southern aspect of the cyclone should be at best. 

I think they kept the TS status but reduced it to 45 mph based on RECON ... something like all of 2 uncontaminated pixels to on the NE side trying to be that much...  Meanwhile the sat IR kept blazin' away like we were witnessing a Chicxulub impact.  I remember the next day, that menacing look faded and sure enough, a weak lvl curl popped out and I don't think that thing ever went onto anything really.  

That's all something else though.  TX may be in for a really bad flood ordeal, either way.

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I had only seen Josh M's footage of Dorian, which, because he's smart, was shot from the safety of a shelter. Tonight I stumbled across this one, which captures the full fury of the eye wall from this dude's balcony. Easily the most intense conditions I've ever seen on film around the 12 minute mark. You can actually see the color of the air changing from second to second as the amount of water flying around diffracts the light. The balls on this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I had only seen Josh M's footage of Dorian, which, because he's smart, was shot from the safety of a shelter. Tonight I stumbled across this one, which captures the full fury of the eye wall from this dude's balcony. Easily the most intense conditions I've ever seen on film around the 12 minute mark. You can actually see the color of the air changing from second to second as the amount of water flying around diffracts the light. The balls on this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs

 

 

I would love to be in this.. the adrenaline  rush is probably insane! 

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You guys need instant gratification ...  jeez.

Problem with modeling and extended favorable regimes ...if whether/even having specifics to monitor therein, is that you have to then wait a week - it may take ...days over days before there is 'excitement'

It's like people lose sight of that, and two days and a couple of banal solution cycles later .... either forget that it's still out there, or because they aren't getting fun right now ..they flop like a five year old and have these "micro" melts.. 

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys need instant gratification ...  jeez.

Problem with modeling and extended favorable regimes ...if whether/even having specifics to monitor therein, is that you have to then wait a week - it may take ...days over days before there is 'excitement'

It's like people lose sight of that, and two days and a couple of banal solution cycles later .... either forget that it's still out there, or because they aren't getting fun right now ..they flop like a five year old and have these "micro" melts.. 

I’m an American and I want my excitement NOW lol (after my MTV of course)

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On 9/12/2021 at 9:15 AM, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

Completely different because that was from freshwater flooding. Anyone with a shred of common sense (not directed at you) knows that Scott and I are referring to severe tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind and storm surge. I get that fresh water flooding is often more costly, but meteorologically speaking, I'd rather be tied to a chair with my my eyes taped open in an upslope thread.

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On 9/12/2021 at 9:29 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. At least as it stands right now it looks like it's way too broad to develop quickly, and just meanders up the coastline. Where have we seen that before...

Only caveat is that we're still a few days out before something actually develops so we casually watch to see what the trends are, if any. 

I'm more bullish on 94L. 

I didn't think that it'd kill more people than in LA, but once the WPC was talking high risk for rainfall, I knew something big was coming. A WPC high risk tends to be reserved for some of the all time precipitation events. 

Yea, it was always obvious that we would get slammed by the remnants...that was not a surprise. I didn't care to delve into it any further because I could not have cared any less if I had tried.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it was always obvious that we would get slammed by the remnants...that was not a surprise. I didn't care to delve into it any further because I could not have cared any less if I had tried.

I don’t blame you. It’s slop. 

Edit: thought you were talking about the current orange lol

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t blame you. It’s slop. 

Edit: thought you were talking about the current orange lol

The current orange is harmless and always was. A benchmark track is great if you're looking for a blizzard, but bonafide tropical system...not so much. Not to mention it will remain a weak system.

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely different because that was from freshwater flooding. Anyone with a shred of common sense (not directed at you) knows that Scott and I are referring to severe tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind and storm surge. I get that fresh water flooding if often more costly, but meteorologically speaking, I'd rather be tied to a chair with my my eyes taped open in an upslope thread.

Tears. :lol:    I needed that.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely different because that was from freshwater flooding. Anyone with a shred of common sense (not directed at you) knows that Scott and I are referring to severe tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind and storm surge. I get that fresh water flooding if often more costly, but meteorologically speaking, I'd rather be tied to a chair with my my eyes taped open in an upslope thread.

Lol..got a good laugh from that.   
 

But when folks die from catastrophic flooding/and major tornadoes on the east coast, it’s pretty bad too.  It was an extreme  event around here and also in  in NYC and NJ, and PA no matter which way you cut it.  

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37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..got a good laugh from that.   
 

But when folks die from catastrophic flooding/and major tornadoes on the east coast, it’s pretty bad too.  It was an extreme  event around here and also in  in NYC and NJ, and PA no matter which way you cut it.  

Absolutely....my point is that it just doesn't get the attention that wind and surge do because its not as sexy. Its insidious in that its actually more dangerous because wind and surge are easier to escape if you act responsibly in advance.

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