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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats to Maritime Canada on getting a hurricane before New England :lol: 

 

Hurricane Larry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1150 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MAKES LANDFALL ON NEWFOUNDLAND...

Recent satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Larry has 
made landfall in Newfoundland near South East Bight at 1145 PM AST 
(0345 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and 
an estimated minimum pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1150 PM AST...0350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.4N 54.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

Maritimes have had 6? 7? landfalls since we had Bob in 1991.

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Well... for however little it is worth -

This/these type(s) of depictions coming outta the Euro and GGEM clusters ( even the 06z operation GFS took a stab...), are far in a way more ominously situating major/traditional aspects out along and above the Basin MDR comparing to what Larry ever did when that cyclone was in its early stages.
 

image.png.ba4df5ce0774193331d984e466f10470.png

Thing is...we're getting serviced buckshot when considering all the various modeling sources as a ( sort of ) single entity technology.  They are on while spraying TC everywhere...and the timings therein are also offset.  It makes it difficult to know what region...  We may in fact have a 'Nick', 'Odette' and 'Peter' concurrently.  That region over the western Gulf is a petri dish this week as the western arc of the WAR softens the mid and upper tropospheric flow into a gentle east caress over that region, which is underpinned by 90 F water or whatever in the boiling Hades it is there... The surrounding atmosphere is moist and there's really frankly nothing to stop that [already notable ] circulation tendency that is near the coast of the Bay from going nuts once that moves out... NAVGEM is the only model that seems aware of this - weird..

In similar parametric scope the region astride the Ga coast/adjacent is also entering a very favorable deep layer for TC genesis.  There isn't much in that vicinity now - mind you...we're talking 'modeled to emerge,' in particular the GFS is pitching the development with the most panache.  But now even the oft' retarded TC genesis Euro ( meaning it's overcoming its blinders..) is now denting the pressure pattern in that region... Whether a TC does take form in that area, the over-arcing theme is also very favorable, and these guidance' may simply be responding to that numerical instability at regional scales and imploding the pressure pattern.   It's very hard to establish a deep layer eastern anomaly in the mid troposphere without cyclonic implications underneath in latitude, regardless of season... We don't ( or do, depending on one's more responsibility - haha) want that happening over 80 to 90 F Gulf Stream thermal energy within reach.. no -  But, until some random thunderstorm out there serves as trigger to coalesce a circulation out of the ether ... we bide time on that. 

Meanwhile, the current rather highly ranked Invest over the far East Atlantic by NHC.   That's not even the TC zygote that we see in recent Euro/GGEM runs out there... It appears a separate TW ejects farther S near S. Leone ... one of those one's that's pretty much TD designated leaving the beach type deals.  That one comes off deep in latitude.  Man, like 9N ...  And with the general +NAO and -PNA extension and +AAM look to the total everywhere of the hemispheric canvas, that southern track seems pretty tamely safe to make the long haul - should have better probability to do so.

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43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t know the exact number but it’s somewhere around that. 

Meh.. I get the commiseration but expectations being realistic - not a surprise.  Couple basic concepts suffice lowering anticipation for us, vs elsewhere...

one ...we are small in geographic area compared to the vastness of "Maritime SE-E Canada.  Obviously ...that ups the odds in their favor surrounding size of target... blah blah.

two ... we are farther W then they are, such that in a real world setting ...where probability is that MDR originating systems simply falter the total distance before succeeded as far W as we are, means they get the earlier recurve frequency more apt to threaten.    "Home grown" Gulf and western Caribbean systems are not likely to affect those areas up there, because there's too much U.S. coastal intervening interaction first.  Most TC's making an impact to those Maritime regions must therefore come from an MDR that peels TCs out before ever getting -   

Simply put, the static factors make it more likely they will than here.  

The rub is ... the odds increase farther down the coast because of said home grown events... because not only do they get those, but, they get a sizeable percentage of those MDR systems that do in fact make it all the way across.  That leaves us with a tiny dole out of what is delivered, all sources combined.    

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Would be nice if the 18z GFS was stronger we watch

It’s interesting this thing I’ve noticed about the 18z cycles (haven’t checked the 06z) of that model. 

it’s like it goes out if it’s way to shave standard deviations off  everything … everywhere. And very consistent behavior. It strikes me as a systemic error when it’s that dependable, but also then washing the whole-scale handling weaker is less than entirely believable … maybe assimilation 

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5. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the 
southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from the northern end 
of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough.  Gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle of the week several hundred miles 
southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the 
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_5d0.png

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guidance still doesn’t do a hell of a lot with it and now the GFS tries to kick it before it ever even makes a true landfall.

Like Tip said yesterday, until we see something form we bide time.

I don’t expect much of anything. At least in terms of excitement.

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Always a Debbie downer :weep:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

I'm just busting his chops:)

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t expect much of anything. At least in terms of excitement.

Agree. At least as it stands right now it looks like it's way too broad to develop quickly, and just meanders up the coastline. Where have we seen that before...

Only caveat is that we're still a few days out before something actually develops so we casually watch to see what the trends are, if any. 

I'm more bullish on 94L. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

I didn't think that it'd kill more people than in LA, but once the WPC was talking high risk for rainfall, I knew something big was coming. A WPC high risk tends to be reserved for some of the all time precipitation events. 

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32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

People hate reality. 

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you don’t have to listen to him, he can be completely incorrect, you do realize this, right?  
 

Nobody ever thought the Friday(8/27) before Ida hit Louisiana that Sunday(8/29), that it would come hit up here, and with such ferocity, and kill more people in NY and Jersey and CT than it did in Louisiana.  Who thought that would happen?  Nobody did.  So what happens with this potential is just anybody’s guess.  
 

If you go on the downside of anything exciting developing …sure you’re gonna be right more than wrong, especially for up in our areas, but in the end it’s only just a guess when it comes to something that’s 5 days out. 
 

 

We knew it would hit with big time flash flooding. The death toll is an unfortunate result,  but it was forecasted well. There were no surprises from that. 

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. At least as it stands right now it looks like it's way too broad to develop quickly, and just meanders up the coastline. Where have we seen that before...

Only caveat is that we're still a few days out before something actually develops so we casually watch to see what the trends are, if any. 

I'm more bullish on 94L. 

I didn't think that it'd kill more people than in LA, but once the WPC was talking high risk for rainfall, I knew something big was coming. A WPC high risk tends to be reserved for some of the all time precipitation events. 

But I think the point I’m making is, they (WPC) didn’t put that warning out until Monday evening…two days prior to it coming in here.  We all know Things can change fast when lots of moving parts are involved, either for the better or worse, depending on what your looking for.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

People hate reality. 

Lol..I know he was busting your chops.  And more often than not you’re idea here is gonna be correct in what we’re seeing being modeled currently.  However, things will change with this going forward…and just how it will all play out.  Ida’s devastation up this way was not seen 5 days out either, and that’s my only point. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..I know he was busting your chops.  And more often than not you’re idea here is gonna be correct in what we’re seeing being modeled currently.  However, things will change with this going forward…and just how it will all play out.  Ida’s devastation up this way was not seen 5 days out either, and that’s my only point. 

It honestly was lol. Models were locked in for heavy precipitation. I get your point though, but the potential for this is limited. Does not appear exciting to me.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It honestly was lol. Models were locked in for heavy precipitation. I get your point though, but the potential for this is limited. Does not appear exciting to me.

Let’s be real, Heavy precipitation and all time historic are two Entirely different things, and that(All time historic idea) was certainly not in the modeling with Ida at these lead times.  
 

But However I agree there is nothing exciting currently in this set up. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be real, Heavy precipitation and all time historic are two Entirely different things, and that(All time historic idea) was certainly not in the modeling with Ida at these lead times.  
 

But However I agree there is nothing exciting currently in this set up. 

The euro was throwing out 6-8” amounts days in advance. I thought it was modeled extremely well. And then when the nam was within range I recall seeing 8-10”+ amounts in SE PA into NJ. That then moved towards NYC. 

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