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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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Hate to say it but Nfld. was due for a landfall. Hope everyone is prepped up. It will come in like Juan did here in Halifax. Breezy and a few gusts then all of a sudden it’s like all hell breaks loose for a few hours then back to gusty. That’s the difference with having a core and being ET. Looks like St. John’s will be in that core for a bit. Days without power seem likely. I’m curious to see what the storm surge will be like on the south coast. It’s sparsely populated but could see significant damage. Good luck to Nick and the rest of the folks. Follow #nlwx for latest goings on.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Hate to say it but Nfld. was due for a landfall. Hope everyone is prepped up. It will come in like Juan did here in Halifax. Breezy and a few gusts then all of a sudden it’s like all hell breaks loose for a few hours then back to gusty. That’s the difference with having a core and being ET. Looks like St. John’s will be in that core for a bit. Days without power seem likely. I’m curious to see what the storm surge will be like on the south coast. It’s sparsely populated but could see significant damage. Good luck to Nick and the rest of the folks. Follow #nlwx for latest goings on.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Wish it were a little closer so I could chase lol, but agree. Likely to be quite impactful up in the St. John’s area. Good luck to everyone up there.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what? That system coming off over the CV islands?

Good luck at that beginning latitude.

No, nothing that far out geographically, though the wave behind the current cherry could come off Africa much lower in latitude with a more westward steering pattern at the end of September. 

The operational guidance has been signaling some sort of weak wave or upper low that could serve as a focal point for tropical or subtropical development in the Bahamas or just off the SE coast about a week from now. It’s subtle, but I wouldn’t expect a particularly aggressive signal given the potential of a PV streamer being nearby.

 

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No, nothing that far out geographically, though the wave behind the current cherry could come off Africa much lower in latitude with a more westward steering pattern at the end of September. 

The operational guidance has been signaling some sort of weak wave or upper low that could serve as a focal point for tropical or subtropical development in the Bahamas or just off the SE coast about a week from now. It’s subtle, but I wouldn’t expect a particularly aggressive signal given the potential of a PV streamer being nearby.

 

Got ya.....yea, I am only looking for more conspicuous threats...

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The signal is there and I think there’s a legit window for development. Not quite sure how sheared the environment will be. 

Yeah, just looked at most of 12z.  Probably will be a window there to pull something into the SE coast or even up the coast, though legit "sort of" or full homebrews are not easy to come by.

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11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

If we can get a tropical cyclone up here I hope at least it has a menacing sounding name. Henri never quite did it for me 

Agree.  iirc there have been a few "Henri" over the years, and all were little homegrown TS/TD's that did nothing.  That maybe plays into it. Though that may be anecdotal to an extent :D

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Agree.  iirc there have been a few "Henri" over the years, and all were little homegrown TS/TD's that did nothing.  That maybe plays into it. Though that may be anecdotal to an extent :D

Hurricane “ruin” would be a cool name. I know I’d move inland/evacuate  for that 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what? That system coming off over the CV islands?

Good luck at that beginning latitude.

How bit this one - haha  ...I've been noticing a coherent anti-correlation between posting and ensuing model depictions ... it's like out to get us

image.thumb.png.b9165f58be970afc597e7edb8d1db1a0.png

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Also, I wouldn't ignore that feature off the Georgia coast ...

With the strengthening WAR tending to extend west that sets that area pretty proper with favorable kinematic layout in general.  The models may be merely responding to that numerical instability with those sporadic inverted trough and weak spins ... but, that behavior also means they are 'trying to find' a trigger point in whimsy -

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Congrats to Maritime Canada on getting a hurricane before New England :lol: 

 

Hurricane Larry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1150 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MAKES LANDFALL ON NEWFOUNDLAND...

Recent satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Larry has 
made landfall in Newfoundland near South East Bight at 1145 PM AST 
(0345 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and 
an estimated minimum pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1150 PM AST...0350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.4N 54.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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