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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs is closer but still a miss

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_35.png

Piece of advise....don't get hung up on 50 mile trends from a tropical system tracking se of NE....its akin to chasing a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. If things ever changed and that thing hit the US, you will see whole scale changes....its not going to get it done slowly trending to the NE from over Georgia's Bank.

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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs is closer but still a miss

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_35.png

Ray's bunning for fun ..but,

you can really see there that the U/A low could have captured, but I really strongly argue at this point that it fails to do so because the modeling is establishing suspicious beta-error, earlier on along the Sam's track guidance.

I don't believe it is merely happenstance that the Euro, with correction/normalization schemes in that particular model that the GFS/GGEM/NAVGEM do not posses, is consummately W of these other guidance' ...a plausible error that actually begins by 96 hours then accumulates, and gets Sam too far out of reach to interact with that U/A low.

That all said, the U/A/ cutting aspect of the flow is not very confidence.  If that is weaker ...it could result the same miss, either way. Also, the position is wrong.  Enthusiasts for storms want that closer to eastern KT - which at that range is not hard to correct towards...  that parts tabled -

For now, the blend of all guidance appears close enough to the "key slot" climatological lat/lon to monitor (~ 60 mi N of PR )

 

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Mm... I will admit, that's a better position for the cut-off wrt to climate in these matters.

But we're still sooooo f ing far away ... man.   Perfect other hobbies and graduate kids from High School before this thing is available to serious consideration.

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