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June 2021


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Review time:  Despite only light amounts of showers expected in parts of our area between now and midday Saturday ( models were too far north a week ago on what will happen south of I78 today), we still did okay., Here's some amounts (3 day)---except e LI.

 

Also the weekend of the 19th-20th seems to be favoring a dying tropical intrusion up this way. No details yet and no topic since it's so far all in a seemingly normal less than 3" range for an event.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-06-11_at_5_31.26_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-06-11_at_5_32.17_AM.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/81), or just about Normal.

No 90's? and little rain for the next 10 days.

Month to date is  75.4[+6.5].       Should be about 73.9[+3.5] by the 19th.

65*(61%RH) here at 6am, overcast.          64* at 7am.           71* by 11am.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Some locations could pick up showers, especially south of New York City. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 69°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s.

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period, which would tie or break daily records. The potential for even higher temperatures exists, as a 1 standard deviation increase from the modeled outcome would produce peak high temperatures around 118° at the height of the extreme heatwave. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

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This was the warmest first 10 days of June on record at Newark. But the maximum temperature of 97° came in lower than the 99° in 1999 and 102 in 2011. So a continuation of the difficulty in reaching 100° in recent years. The 100° temperatures  were located to our west where the most extreme  drought conditions were located. The record heat and ridging will pull back to the West during mid-June intensifying the drought conditions there. While the drought locations and intensity is different from 1999 and 2011, those years both featured record heat in July for our area. Perhaps this means we can make a run on 100° in July. But we have seen how the maximum temperatures in early June were 2 to 5°lower than 1999 and 2011. So it will be interesting to see how July turns out. As for the tropics, the first potential for this year looks to be near the TX/LA Western Gulf region. This would follow the recent stuck pattern of cooler and wetter in that region undercutting the ridge across the north. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 10
Maximum Temperature 
1 2021-06-10 77.1 97
2 1999-06-10 76.0 99
3 2011-06-10 75.9 102


27918BBD-78ED-4523-AE98-80CF5678E761.thumb.png.252bac755a0205aba02cbcc6c6e7b8b7.png
56015338-465C-4705-B66E-46494D1A1D6B.thumb.png.d55fe59a7b1173a1f9656f0be84d6b8c.png

553C1708-8AC7-4290-9D99-A759C747361F.thumb.png.06f50f2b9d47bc2a955d211d1ee3b5e6.png

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Down to 65 and mainly cloudy.  With the front hung up to our south clouds (Sat) and showers (sun) will likely spoil what had previously been a California like weather weekend.  A bit warmer Sun - Tue before a  few days of cooler weather Wed (6/16) and Thu (6/17). 

Rockies ridge does continue to be forecast at exceptional levels the next 7  dayas.   Strong to record heat will build out west in the deserts and into the plains.   Pieces of that heat will begin to eject east laster next week Fri 6/19. As we hover around the rim of the expanding ridge.  Next shot at 90s when we arent too stormy  Sat 6/19 - 6/23.  Beyond there models do hint at EC ridging building back as the WC ridge relaxes east.  Id say those ridges out west like to get anchored there so best way for prolonged heat until that ridge moves east is the WAR  expanding west and the two ridges hooking.  

Overall warm to hot June .

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20 hours ago, psv88 said:

That’s not Friday to Tuesday brother. The weekend will be excellent, maybe some rain later on Sunday 

I hope it does improve but I think Saturday will see variable to mostly cloudy skies and Sunday any sun may be morning short lived before clouds and some rain showers arrive in the PM.

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15 hours ago, dWave said:

That makes sense, western Queens is very dense and urbanized, and becomes a little less so the futher east you get. Also around LIC you have about 12 miles of land including the most urbanized parts of Brooklyn separating you from the Atlantic, once you get out to GCP, your lined up with Jamaica Bay and now you only have about 6 miles btwn you and the water.

I feel similar about Manhattan, during the day it does feel a little less hot compared to just outside of it, I think its cuz there so much shade from tall bldgs. Just out of there esp Queens and the Bx its still very urbanized but without all the shade, so much more sun reaches the ground to bake you.  I do noticed those temps really peak on and near roads like 278/BQE, Bruckner, Deegan, Cross Bronx. That kinda what alot of NYC is like away from the water or in a park.

Yep, the differences are stark.  Manhattan actually has trees and I think the buildings being close together provide some shade.  The temps really ramp up as soon as I get into Queens but they start falling fairly rapidly again past that park with the lake in it that's near the GCP.

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

When you take the average of NY coastal climate division #4, it was the 2nd warmest behind 2010.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

JJA average 

201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F
202006 - 202008 74.5°F 125 2.8°F
201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F
200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F
201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F
199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F
201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F
201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F
201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F
201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F
194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F
200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 1.3°F
200206 - 200208 72.9°F 114 1.2°F
201306 - 201308 72.9°F 114 1.2°F


July

 

 

201007 78.5°F 126 4.6°F
202007 77.8°F 125 3.9°F
201307 77.7°F 124 3.8°F
199907 77.4°F 123 3.5°F
201107 77.4°F 123 3.5°F
201907 77.3°F 121 3.4°F
195507 77.0°F 120 3.1°F
201207 76.7°F 119 2.8°F
199407 76.6°F 118 2.7°F
201607 76.5°F 117 2.6°F
195207 76.3°F 116 2.4°F

The thing I find odd is that so few of the high 90 degree summers are on this list.  Just off the top of my head I would've thought 1966, 1980, 1983, 1991, and 1993 should be near the top.

 

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18 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's a close match....but  Not here.   Feb 2010 was mostly rain here. We got 3 inches of slop at the end....   The rain/snow line in 2010 was further west for 1888 it was well east of New Haven, CT

Right, also a quicker storm than what 1888 was.  We had a foot of snow after an inch of rain which was the first time thats happened.  March 1888 was also rain at the start but the storm lasted so long that over 2 feet of snow fell on the backend.

Imagine that- over 2 feet of backside snow!

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, also a quicker storm than what 1888 was.  We had a foot of snow after an inch of rain which was the first time thats happened.  March 1888 was also rain at the start but the storm lasted so long that over 2 feet of snow fell on the backend.

Imagine that- over 2 feet of backside snow!

 

just a weird setup-an arctic front stalled down I-91 with snow west of it and rain east of it.   

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, the differences are stark.  Manhattan actually has trees and I think the buildings being close together provide some shade.  The temps really ramp up as soon as I get into Queens but they start falling fairly rapidly again past that park with the lake in it that's near the GCP.

its ten degrees warmer near subway vents...

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Weekends since late May have been alternating between record heat and backdoor cold fronts. May 22-23 had record heat and May 29-30 featured record cold and wet. June 5-6 we were back to record heat. Now this weekend will feature clouds with breaks of sun and a cooler onshore flow.

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    6/11/2021  1200 UTC                      
 DT /JUNE 11/JUNE 12                /JUNE 13                /JUNE 14 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    59          74          61          78    66 
 TMP  68 69 65 63 61 60 63 69 72 71 68 66 64 63 65 69 74 76 73 68 69 
 DPT  47 49 52 52 52 53 54 54 55 56 56 56 56 56 57 58 60 60 61 62 62 
 CLD  OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV 
 WDR  09 10 07 05 05 05 04 05 08 14 14 17 20 19 22 24 20 19 18 21 22 
 WSP  06 07 06 05 04 04 05 05 06 07 05 05 04 02 05 05 07 09 07 06 06
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