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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Para with a beast day 7 /8 . Just need a south trend at h5 . Plenty of time for a trend :D

 

500hv.na (2).png

 

Crazy huge nw winds as this drives north of New York.  Verbatim 55 mph gusts here

Models have been signaling at this storm for about a week now. This was the storm I was referring to when I said @psuhoffman would likely hit 60” by the 7th. I actually really like the 5-7th window for a potential final biggie. It’ll be a small window, but if we can thread the needle, look out. Especially in N/NW zones. 

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54 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:
Para with a beast day 7 /8 . Just need a south trend at h5 . Plenty of time for a trend emoji3.png
 
1749026487_500hv.na(2).thumb.png.99f061782ff2a3ab9c08a34f145a8806.png

Op gfs has HM storm

That was legit. Close call. Something to track hopefully. I’d LOVE to see all these warminstas break out the shorts and tshirts only to have a foot of snow happen. Bring it

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30 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That was legit. Close call. Something to track hopefully. I’d LOVE to see all these warminstas break out the shorts and tshirts only to have a foot of snow happen. Bring it

I am all in for something, but that is not an exciting look to me at all. I see a broad vorticity lobe and not a sharp shortwave. That wont get much done at the surface in our region. I suppose there is plenty of time for it to evolve into something entirely different though. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

For the day 5/6 potential HH Euro has the piece of pv the furthest south and southwest I've  seen . Extraping I'd  would think  definitely confluence would hang on a bit more with our ssw coming in  . And the sw is quicker ejecting east this run as well .

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4600000.png

Eps definitely stepped towards the op for Tuesday night.  Surface and 850s a bit colder leading into precip moving in overnight Tuesday.  Hopefully it keeps the positive trends rolling. 

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WWA issued for here beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Hope I and others W and N cash in:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
803 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

VAZ025-026-260915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.210226T2000Z-210227T1100Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-
803 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Snow and sleet
  accumulations ranging from a coating to 1 inch below 2,000 feet
  to 2 to 4 inches above 2000 feet. Ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch from freezing rain above 2,000 feet.

* WHERE...Augusta and Rockingham Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday. Snow (mixed with
  sleet and rain in the valleys) will overspread the area between
  3 and 5 PM Friday afternoon. Precipitation will change to rain
  late Friday evening into early Saturday. However, rain will
  likely freeze on some surfaces above 2000 feet.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
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4 hours ago, Ji said:
4 hours ago, ravensrule said:
Ummmmm

Can you stop posting. What are you 12?

People have been asking that of you since Wright Weather. Maybe when you take your own advice I’ll think about listening to you. 

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6z Para sped up the sw which is probably key . Gets Virginia some snow verbatim.  Icon has highs in the 20s Tuesday leading in lol but its slow with the sw.

6z Euro also coming in a bit quicker and weaker  with the wave at end of run 90 hour along with confluence further sw .

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00 UT EPS mean snow fall for College Park over the next 15 days is 1", likely an inch below climatology.   To put it another way, the EPS "predicts" that 4% of a predicted 2.3" of precipitation during the next 15 days will be snow/sleet.  Pathetic but if forced to put down money I'd take the ... 

The EPS mean (median) snow/sleet for the  February 28 storm is 0.1 (0.0)"   

The same values for the March 3/4 storm are 0.4 (0.0)". 

One ensemble member shows a HECS March 10-12.  The 18+" from that storm is the main contributor to the 1" mean.  Could be fun. 

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Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend. 

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