CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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5 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This winter gets an A+ from me just because it blew away any other winter in my life.

Grinch was horrifying and nearly broke my brain. I was saved by the Jan 17 and Feb 1/2 storms. One of the worst weather events in my life, maybe tops. I never want to see “atmospheric river” and “warm sector” together in a GYX distro ever again.

The long boring periods where every storm went south of me (which is ongoing) has been rather annoying. @dendrite tried to warn me  

Retention after Grinch has been fabulous. I am in a great spot for that. The pack here has been like you’d see at a ski place.

Uplsope was also fun. No idea if I received more or less of that than usual. It seems pretty decoupled from the broader pattern so probably average there. It was the synoptic piece that was lacking, based on the historical record.

And before the usual suspects rage out at me that it can still snow 2 feet in mid April here... yeah I get that. LOL wake me up when the models show a real, strong low SE of my house with my temp at 28. So far all I still see is weak crap. Thank god for uplsope. 

Once you get a firm grasp of climo, it will be revised to a C- or so..

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5 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This winter gets an A+ from me just because it blew away any other winter in my life.

Grinch was horrifying and nearly broke my brain. I was saved by the Jan 17 and Feb 1/2 storms. One of the worst weather events in my life, maybe tops. I never want to see “atmospheric river” and “warm sector” together in a GYX distro ever again.

The long boring periods where every storm went south of me (which is ongoing) has been rather annoying. @dendrite tried to warn me  

Retention after Grinch has been fabulous. I am in a great spot for that. The pack here has been like you’d see at a ski place.

Uplsope was also fun. No idea if I received more or less of that than usual. It seems pretty decoupled from the broader pattern so probably average there. It was the synoptic piece that was lacking, based on the historical record.

And before the usual suspects rage out at me that it can still snow 2 feet in mid April here... yeah I get that. LOL wake me up when the models show a real, strong low SE of my house with my temp at 28. So far all I still see is weak crap. Thank god for uplsope. 

You have plenty of cold and snow to go too. But after a few years up there I want you to regrade this winter. It’ll be like draft gurus giving the Chargers an A grade for drafting Ryan Leaf and then 5 years later it’s an F grade.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Once you get a firm grasp of climo, it will be revised to a C- or so..

Do you guys grade based on climo or experience?  Like is it an enjoyment grade or a flat compared to climo grade?

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Do you guys grade based on climo or experience?  Like is it an enjoyment grade or a flat compared to climo grade?

Ray grades on number of big storms and KUs , others on whole overall appeal

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7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

What part of England got more snow than you?

My sister lives in the yorkshire dales. I should clarify, in an event. I think she got 7 or so.

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17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

My sister lives in the yorkshire dales. I should clarify, in an event. I think she got 7 or so.

Where does your sister live?  My mother was from Yorkshire. I have cousins around Huddersfield and my aunt still lives in a small village called Sowerby Bridge. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Do you guys grade based on climo or experience?  Like is it an enjoyment grade or a flat compared to climo grade?

I grade on a combo weighted towards an enjoyment factor. This stretch since MLK Day has been good but if we don’t get anything more soon it will end snowmobiling early. But I also consider climo. The lack of true cold is a demerit. Right now I’m thinking C- maybe a straight C. Further south where they got whalloped, I could see a better grade. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Do you guys grade based on climo or experience?  Like is it an enjoyment grade or a flat compared to climo grade?

Both. 

27" for FEB IMBY is a nice little month...I know that irritates Steve because this season was not 2010-2011, but no one else expected that but him and his dog.

My record for the month is over 60", so it needs to be like high 30's to really start to crack the memory bank. Feb 1 was an awesome event,  though.

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Judging by how March looks, I'm going to end up below average snowfall and above avg temps for the season, so I'm not sure what element of the "overall appeal" I neglected to consider. I'm all ears....I think a C- is pretty fair...if March suprises, then it goes up.

I understand s of the pike did better, but I don't live there...obviously the grade there is higher.

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I tend to grade on the overall feel of the winter.  I"ll weight the bad parts vs the good parts and decide which stood out more and grade from there.  I'm at a B- right now here just based off of the last several weeks of cold and sustained snowpack. If we get a big bomb in march or the spring skiing is off the hook then I'm very willing to forget losing a insane amount of snow in one day on Christmas. 

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C-C+
 

Positives:  one 12-18, several 6+, October dump.

Negatives:   Grinch, January mind numbing meh.   
 

March can bring it down or up a grade depending on what happens.

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Right now for me I would say this winter was a c+/b-, but after March I think it will be more like a B+/A-. The euro is already starting to bring the storm back, we are currently in the phase where models lose the storm and slowly start bringing it back, and then before you know it a blizzard is on our doorstep. 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Judging by how March looks, I'm going to end up below average snowfall and above avg temps for the season, so I'm not sure what element of the "overall appeal" I neglected to consider. I'm all ears....I think a C- is pretty fair...if March suprises, then it goes up.

I understand s of the pike did better, but I don't live there...obviously the grade there is higher

Amazing variation between SNE vs NYC metro this season. 

Here the winter is a solid B/B+ with well above normal snows, 4 weeks of snow cover, BN Feb temps. Nice December storm. Lack of 50+ temperatures. 

Negatives are a sucky January with AN temps Dec & Jan. If temps were a little colder with a good Jan storm then it would be an easy A- or better.

The only true A/A+ seasons since 2000 would be 02/03 and 09/10. 13/14 & 14/15 are B+/A-

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It's going to be 5 degrees tonight.  That will raise it a quarter grade at least.  From rain and 40s to windsexy to go brrrrrr.  The events some of us live for. 

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9 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Lack of arctic air has been a big detriment along with the Grinch storm, if we get a KU this month it could raise it half a grade.

Pass on the arctic air though. If it could be straight 25-30 every day, that is perfect. I suppose for the feel of it once in awhile that's cool, but I'll pass on the PV sitting on my face. The fact that we have had no massive torches and no massive arctic intrusions is fine with me.

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Top of the mixing layer on BUFKIT is 50-60kts. That's probably a tall task to do, but you figure CAA on WNW flow is one way to do it. 

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Not liking the look of the overnight lows this coming weekend here.  15 degrees! Yikes!  Tough to get the snow to corn up off those lows. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ASOU mentioned 

I'm not sure those can be tapped, but not impossible for 50kts.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Para almost pulled it off

603ce0f8bd70e.png

603ce10ad307d.png

Definitely need to watch that but like most have said it looks like crap right now

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Para almost pulled it off

603ce0f8bd70e.png

603ce10ad307d.png

About as close as Chris Davis swinging at a curveball and missing by 3 feet.  Image result for chris davis images

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Top of the mixing layer on BUFKIT is 50-60kts. That's probably a tall task to do, but you figure CAA on WNW flow is one way to do it. 

I just can't think of any HWW on NW flow. Even if we did tickle 50 kt I'm not sure impacts would even be that widespread. 

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