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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Looks like overall fairly mild to start. We'll have to watch a boundary nearby with some fairly cold air to the north. With any luck maybe we can get some overrunning to start the month, but the 500mb pattern doesn't exactly scream wintry. At least as of right now.

 

 

image.png.affae985771a4d834ac1434e1c0e0338.png

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like overall fairly mild to start. We'll have to watch a boundary nearby with some fairly cold air to the north. With any luck maybe we can get some overrunning to start the month, but the 500mb pattern doesn't exactly scream wintry. At least as of right now.

 

 

image.png.affae985771a4d834ac1434e1c0e0338.png

11-15 is still a ways out ...so that caveat of “As of right now” is well taken.  I’m not trusting that look all to much currently to be honest. 

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There's prob 2 chances to try and time something perfect in early March....first attempt is around 3/1 and then maybe another a couple days later.

The pattern has been swinging a lot on each run though with multiple shortwaves, so these could change and I expect a lot of volatile model runs until we get closer.

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3 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Hoping for one bona fide storm to develop south of LI actually strengthen, and then curl up into the Gulf of ME with heavy snow and winds 50+ along the coast. You know, like storms of yore. Too much to ask this year...maybe we'll get it next October. ;)

Last two seasons have been void of those, even srly gales too..especially this year. 2/1 had good winds on the coast, but that's it. Even those big NW gales behind a departing low, have been missing. Not many windy events this season.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like overall fairly mild to start. We'll have to watch a boundary nearby with some fairly cold air to the north. With any luck maybe we can get some overrunning to start the month, but the 500mb pattern doesn't exactly scream wintry. At least as of right now.

 

 

image.png.affae985771a4d834ac1434e1c0e0338.png

hints of Scooter highs in WQC and EON?

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Last two seasons have been void of those, even srly gales too..especially this year. 2/1 had good winds on the coast, but that's it. Even those big NW gales behind a departing low, have been missing. Not many windy events this season.

I'll bet @Typhoon Tip could shed some light at why.....

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Last two seasons have been void of those, even srly gales too..especially this year. 2/1 had good winds on the coast, but that's it. Even those big NW gales behind a departing low, have been missing. Not many windy events this season.

It’s been noticeable with the lack of solid upslope periods after a storm passes. 1/17 was good for that. 2/1 was basically devoid of wind despite having a decent low in the GOM. 

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s been noticeable with the lack of solid upslope periods after a storm passes. 1/17 was good for that. 2/1 was basically devoid of wind despite having a decent low in the GOM. 

Definitely seems that way watching the Pittsburg obs. There haven't been many of the surprise 6"+ upslope events. Despite the late start, they seem to be salvaging a decent snowmobile season. The lack of thaws certaintly is helping the trails. There should be some upslope this week with all the systems moving through. 

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May be a situation that is unstable ...

Accepting that... as of 00z operational versions ( and cross-guidance ...) none that I have seen, to date for that matter ..., have really shined on with much appeal that represents just how the warm hemisphere could be given the GEF's -based telecon layout. 

Right now... readers are, "meh, don't use them anyway..." and defer reading any further, either for that reason, or because I can't write small amounts.. Lol.   But, I know what I'm doing. It  has been a great tool for advanced prognostic risk assessment in the past.  just this season, October, December and January events were all, in part, visualized utilizing implicit signaling and 'synergistic' awareness triggered by observing nuances in the cluster.  I'm sure for hardened EPS users...they get the same inference there.  They are not useless ;)

If the EPS were perhaps twice as 'warm' with its color/anomaly distribution Scott provided ...it would be supported by the GEFs.  I suppose seeing the EPS modulating this far is akin to a grudging acknowledgement.  It is at least partial, cross -guidance mean support.  Even if the operational runs are not interested as mentioned above - which they really ... frustrating are not to an egregious appeal.  Failing giving us the early 70 degree ridge bomb that the GEFs EOFs are allowing .. their putting snow threats to the 10th of the month. Not climate unheard of per se - duh. But, climate for dummies, climate is not a prognostic tool.   Meanwhile, the operational Euro tries to engineer a D10 NJ model snow event as though the A.I. has become self aware and is doing it on purpose to be annoying. heh.

I will mention, ..the extended part of that CPC, PNA prognostic curve has sloped back toward neutral ...Its possible that heralds positive PNA onset... that's not really climate supported with the La Nina ( which by the way... I feel like I'm violating my own doctrine by mentioning that damn ENSO state as much as I have been lately, because I believe still that the total forcing from that factor is being augmented by the HC shit..it's a new frontier in CC ...and though the latter is being researched in the ambit, I personally wonder if the present La Nina is not the hemispheric footing as much as it is La Nina and HC working as positive constructors  )  

Whatever it is parse-able and in truth contribution ... -ENSOs of these numeral likeness, and recent 12 month back grounds, presaged notably warm springs of lore... 2012 ... 1976.  I'm sure there are others.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty big changes after day 10 to possible allow some chances into the 7th or so. A bit better ridging out west and up near Greenland. However, it got milder to start March. I'm trying to have some hope for this time..lol. 

It’s all over the place...changing every run.
 

But let the fat beotch sing if that’s what she wants. I’m totally cool with it. Been a very good season here. No complaints, no regrets. 

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s all over the place...changing every run.
 

But let the fat beotch sing if that’s what she wants. I’m totally cool with it. Been a very good season here. No complaints, no regrets. 

I'd be happy with one more decent event and then call it quits. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing worse than a Morch that isn’t a torch and doesn’t snow. If it’s just weeks of 40’s and low 50’s and 30 at night. No thanks. Worst time of year is here 

THats probably what it is. No real sign of a huge ridge forming like 2012 or 2010...but that could change later when we get closer to mid-month so we’ll see. 

But it’s probably just going to be torture...lots of 40s and 50s watching the pack slowly melt/sublimate. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

THats probably what it is. No real sign of a huge ridge forming like 2012 or 2010...but that could change later when we get closer to mid-month so we’ll see. 

But it’s probably just going to be torture...lots of 40s and 50s watching the pack slowly melt/sublimate. 

It’s so depressing . Really puts one in an irritable mood . Can’t do anything outside, no yard work . Hopefully Tips furnace he’s been promising for Morch starts showing on modeling 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s so depressing . Really puts one in an irritable mood . Can’t do anything outside, no yard work . Hopefully Tips furnace he’s been promising for Morch starts showing on modeling 

Once this melts which most of it will over the next several days around here, outdoor  projects get done. Good way to look at it. 

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