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Ji

Monday Morning 2/22 Snow Event

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44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We’ve had ensemble maps posting to the point of nausea this year but with a system approaching Monday we can’t get a single ensemble map? Friday either? Somebody kidnap Will?

Maybe folks are tired of posting snow maps that are somehow only accurate north of 70 and west of Parr's Ridge

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RGEM is marginal at the surface w a warm layer up top. Probably white rain or a mix w little to no accumulation given the timing.

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16 minutes ago, snowfan said:

RGEM is marginal at the surface w a warm layer up top. Probably white rain or a mix w little to no accumulation given the timing.

I'm not arguing a possible warm layer ...but the airmass leading up is pretty decent.  20s for many as precip starts . Earlier the better for sure . Timing is an average across guidance of mid morning start west of 95 so not too bad and it's still February. 

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4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Would be funny if this worked out though. Its the ones you dont count on that often surprise :)

Definitely...most of our light to moderate hits ( which is usually the majority of our seasonal snow )become clear only between 72-100 hours 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is strictly an I-81 and west event. Be realistic and you won't be disappointed.

C’mon man. Get on board. It’s just gonna keep trending better.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

C’mon man. Get on board. It’s just gonna keep trending better.

I hope you pull it off dude, seriously.  There is zero chance that it works for us.  No need to worry about anybody outside your backyard dude.  I get it.  I'm not like the other debs tho.  I'm not going to be in here constantly shitting up threads with negativity.  you know I know how to roll.  

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Watch this lame threat become our biggest snow fall of the year....LOL

I think that’s what Ji’s plan was. Every other superstition has struggled to produce for many of us this winter.


.

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We’ve had several excellent spurts of observations. Most weren’t as long or totally what we thought. We are approaching almost 30 days of this pattern  and that’s way better than typical in many/most winters 

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7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I hope you pull it off dude, seriously.  There is zero chance that it works for us.  No need to worry about anybody outside your backyard dude.  I get it.  I'm not like the other debs tho.  I'm not going to be in here constantly shitting up threads with negativity.  you know I know how to roll.  

Stranger things have happened I guess. Not a great set up for the coastal plain with the low tracking over the GL and HP centered due east over the Atlantic. The way it could work is an initial slug of heavy precip partially mitigating/delaying the warming low and mid level temps. The upside is still less than an inch for my yard. Maybe this will be the odd case of something that looks all wrong synoptically working out lol.

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Strong support from the 00UT EPS for a minor event Monday evening - 44 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet in College Park. what could possibly go wrong?

90th percentile: 2"

80th percentile: 2"

70th percentile: 1"

60th percentile: 1"

50th percentile: 0.9"

40th percentile: 0.6"

30th percentile: 0.4"

20th percentile: 0.2"

10th percentile: 0.0"

Keep in mind these are for College Park; your backyard could do a bit better. 

Also, do not apply the (EPS-3)*2/3 rule, which has worked so well this winter.  It works best with a 24-hour forecast and has not been tested yet during this period of shorter wavelengths and colder climatological SSTs. 

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Looking through the models almost all of them have a 2" event for the favored spots... most get close to 1" in Baltimore.... surprised this place isn't hopping more. Shows how done we are with winter, I guess.

Anyways, here is the RGEM as well.

1614027600-5PZZ1GaUO3w.png

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No,  it shows that the portions of the board that live in and close-in to the cities has seen enough of marginal events in questionable air masses this season to wait and see if anything falls that is frozen before reacting at this point.

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

No,  it shows that the portions of the board that live in and close-in to the cities has seen enough of marginal events in questionable air masses this season to wait and see if anything falls that is frozen before reacting at this point.

Yea, not to mention the type of deal it is. Fairly heavy precip in a line like a front and low pressure passing well north. I'll never get excited for that in my yard. Can it accumulate near the cities? Sure, def possible. But only with the lucky combo of cold enough air from 925 on down and fairly intense precip like a line of storms. I'm not hanging my hat on being cold enough AND being under a spring cell like burst of snow. I'm interested in the event itself as it could be sneaky but only interested in real time. I see no reason to track or dig into every model run. My guess is a middle ground. A period of very attractive snowfall with nothing to measure as it moves east. 

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