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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event


wdrag
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4-8" for most, up to 12" locally.

It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

4-8" for most, up to 12" locally.

It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.

Have to watch the coastal to see what it does

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18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.

This storm has in and out in about 8 hours written all over it. No blocking, strong mid-level jet and retreating high. 

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4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think the long duration on the RGEM and GGEM results from multiple waves though, not slow storm movement, right?.

It's relying on another shortwave rounding the base of the trough and creating another storm. It's possible but I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening without better model agreement.

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Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.

little if any mixing throughout the event for many areas

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