WxUSAF

February 13, 2021 Ice Storm Obs

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Wow, the NAM is a lot more enthused about the ice prospects after a really dry run at 12z.

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1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

This is one I actually hope falls apart.  Ice storms are good for nothing -- see the devastating 100-car pileup that has happened in Texas with 5 dead and dozens injured due to ice.

I agree.  Can take or leave ice.

 

Just now, Yeoman said:

Who wants to bet on zero surface ice accretion in downtown DC?

NAM has two days of below 30 high temps.  I remain skeptical.  We haven't had any sub 30 highs yet this season around here I don't think.  

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3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Who wants to bet on zero surface ice accretion in downtown DC?

I bet this will be the one time we overperform.  We certainly did with the ice two weeks ago.

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20 minutes ago, yoda said:

AKQ just went WSWatch for their zones for around a quarter inch of ice... watch is from late Friday night into Saturday evening 

Do watches go to ice storm warnings or winter storm warnings?  What determines that?  I can’t remember an ice storm warning here.   

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do watches go to ice storm warnings or winter storm warnings?  What determines that?  I can’t remember an ice storm warning here.   

They are WSW around here. 1/4 inch of ice equals WSW

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I certainly don't wish destruction on anyone, but I'm down for a bit of ice.  I lived in North Louisiana as a kid during 2 back to back ice storms in 1999 - 2000 and remember hearing pine trees snap all night.  We lived in the woods north of Ruston, LA and it sounded like gun shots every time another tree would snap.  Huge transformer flashes all night until all of Ruston was without power.  The lights stayed out for an entire week in December 1999.  It might sound awful, but some of our best memories are from that time all hanging out as a family - cooking meals over the fire place. 

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Just now, notvirga! said:

They are WSW around here. 1/4 inch of ice equals WSW

If snow is included.  If its just ice, ice storm warning is issued

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LWX AFD afternoon update 

By Saturday, attention will turn to yet another disturbance,
this time approaching the area in southwesterly flow. Cold air
will remain entrenched at the surface, but a prominent warm nose
is expected to move in aloft as warm advection ensues in
advance of the disturbance. With temperatures at the surface
holding in the 20s to around 30, and temperatures aloft climbing
well above freezing, freezing rain appears like it may be the
predominant precipitation type with this system. Some brief
mixing with snow and sleet may be possible as well, especially
further north and west. Guidance has trended slightly downward
with QPF totals. However, with surface temps in the 20s, an
impactful event appears likely, since most, if not all of the
rain that falls should accrete into ice. At least a glaze
appears likely in most spots, with a tenth to two tenths of an
inch possible. If wetter solutions like the Euro or Canadian
were to verify, even more significant ice accumulations would be
possible. We`ll continue to monitor trends and adjust the
forecast as necessary as we move closer to the event.

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9 minutes ago, SnowCane said:

I certainly don't wish destruction on anyone, but I'm down for a bit of ice.  I lived in North Louisiana as a kid during 2 back to back ice storms in 1999 - 2000 and remember hearing pine trees snap all night.  We lived in the woods north of Ruston, LA and it sounded like gun shots every time another tree would snap.  Huge transformer flashes all night until all of Ruston was without power.  The lights stayed out for an entire week in December 1999.  It might sound awful, but some of our best memories are from that time all hanging out as a family - cooking meals over the fire place. 

I have happy memories of ice storms too. My daughters sorority sisters en mass coming down to stay with us from Lehigh because they had no power at Lehigh.

 

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They can keep it.  If it can't snow then it needs to be above freezing for rain!

A bit of glazing is fine, looks pretty and all.  But when limbs and entire trees come down and some folks are without power for days and even weeks, that is horrible!

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As someone who lives around a bunch of trees, I am hoping the ice does not happen. I remember the last ice storm we got and it looked the scene in Band of Brothers after the shelling before they went to Foy. Trees snapped in half.

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If we're going to have boring a$$ freezing rain I hope it at least causes some destruction. What good is ice without crashing and booming. I hope people don't get hurt of course but I wouldn't mind some tree damage. Free firewood and I can charge to remove it. Let's face it. Most of us are here for extreme weather of any kind.

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