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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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3 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

Welp, I'm getting nervous. This is not how I wanted to wake up at all! Stop trending northwest dammit!

 

Seriously, I am on the north side of Cincy, but based on these trends I'm glad I called 6-10. I'm not sure we get there.

I thought you were in Macomb, IL.

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1 minute ago, miamarsden8 said:

I was, I moved out to Cincy about a year and a half ago to try to get better opportunities. I also get much less fun weather out here...until this year.

I would say overall, I would prefer the climate of Cincy compared to Macomb. Weather probably not as extreme, which is fine for me. I don't care for extreme cold or extreme heat. I do like big snowstorms though.

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3 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

I was, I moved out to Cincy about a year and a half ago to try to get better opportunities. I also get much less fun weather out here...until this year.

Our truly exciting weather events are few and far between... But there is a lot of beer here...

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Just woke up after catching up on some much needed sleep and looked at the models. Wow. No question we’ll need at least an advisory here and if trends continue to increase snow amounts a WSW will be needed. SREF plumes up to 6 inches at SBN. My call of 3” looks like it’s going to bust and I’m good with that.

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9 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

15z RAP going hard on LES

Haven't looked in detail yet but conceptually, I'd think this farther northwest surface low track would make it even more likely that the band parks in Illinois for a while.

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in like a day this shifted from looking like a 3-5" event here to potential for the strongest snowstorm of the winter. the nw trend really works wonders on my weenie. as much as i wanna lock in the weenie maps, 7 inches sounds good for my final call. 

if ur reading this i hope u get some snow dawg

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4 minutes ago, Chambana said:

The high ratio snow mixed with the gusts of 20-25 will create a disaster. It’s not going to take much wind with this fluff. 

Yeah hoping for minimal wind once this stuff turns to sugar.  Always seems like we're the last to see a plow out where I'm at.  Plus its going to be falling on top of a mini Cyclone77 glacier so little resistance to hold it in place.  

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
535 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021
Confidence is medium in the forecast overall, with
greater confidence in the southeast and lower confidence along the
northwestern fringes. The totals occur over a 36 hour period, so we
fall short of warning criteria in our far southeastern CWA. In
collaboration with neighbors, opted to keep a high-end advisory for
now, with potential for upgrade to a warning if the more aggressive
solutions (NAM/ECMWF) look more likely.
The first system will lift in
tonight and exit by Monday afternoon/early evening before the next
system if the GFS/GEM are correct. However, the ECMWF and especially
the NAM keep the precipitation ongoing through that period, and
develop a coupled jet structure right around 00z--which really amps
things up as far as forcing goes. In addition, the ECMWF/NAM also
have a weaker surface high sprawled across the midwest (as opposed
to the GEM/GFS solution), which allows for that secondary low to
lift further northwest as the stronger mid level trough inches
eastward into Monday night/Tuesday.
As far as Thursday`s system goes, both the ECMWF/GFS bring the upper
level trough into the upper Great Lakes, and the subsequent strong
surface low northeastward from the gulf into the lower Great
Lakes/Ohio (the GFS faster and deeper with the system). With a
negatively tilted trough and deepening surface low, I tend to go
with the stronger solution and further northwest track. So have
likely pops in the eastern CWA (mainly along/east of I 69) late
Wednesday night into Thursday evening, and high end chances for the
central CWA (lowest west half). Think this could be a better system
than these first two, but a lot could change by then with this
active short/mid term forecast so will hold off on any further
discussion.

 

So IWX may go to a warning, who knows. Forecasting 3-5 inches for us right now. Also a possible second "better" system on Thursday!

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Yeah hoping for minimal wind once this stuff turns to sugar.  Always seems like we're the last to see a plow out where I'm at.  Plus its going to be falling on top of a mini Cyclone77 glacier so little resistance to hold it in place.  
 
Same here. Starting to hear the B word thrown around. Doubt it meets strict criteria but close enough we might get some pretty sizable drifts.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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