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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Well then

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ103>105-150430-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg,
Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park,
La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park,
and Park Forest
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold
  temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind
  chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well.

* WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind
  chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in
  as few as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected
  Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel
  conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak
  Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short
  distances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the
internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com.

 

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Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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21 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

On the fringe thought there might be a little recorrect SE

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

how dare you talk down upon and bash an NWS forecast.

they are highly qualified and trained meteorologists, who know what they are doing at all times.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the added detail. Can you explain the science behind what determines how far the Lake effect snow travels? It is the case where if a single band stays in one area it can “push farther” inland?

I like the AFD overall message that Monday night into Tuesday is going to be messy in Cook County. That seems like a reasonable and justified message and not getting pinned down into what essentially is a nowcast for LE band setup.

Glad NWS divided up Cook into a few warning areas. Absolutely helps in cases like this. 

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13 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Well then

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ103>105-150430-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg,
Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park,
La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park,
and Park Forest
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold
  temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind
  chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well.

* WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind
  chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in
  as few as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected
  Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel
  conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak
  Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short
  distances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the
internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com.

 

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

I think the warning text is appropriate and will sufficiently notify the public of what’s coming.

When I get back to Chicago we’ll likely be near if not exceeding a 40” depth. Wild 

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5 minutes ago, Chambana said:

My 8.7” call looking $.

Can you make my call as well? :lol:

 

Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond.

 

Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic.

 

Screenshot_20210214-144906_Facebook.thumb.jpg.b04256488ecc2a0e29cb94882b052a37.jpg

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27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Is it possible they don't want to take away from the current wind chill headline the further west you go where the snow threat is less.. Let that expire then issue the watch or warning?  Or is that not how it works?

Scratch that. I see the wwa now

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Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

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Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ044>046-051>057-061-062-066-151000-
/O.UPG.KILX.WW.Y.0011.210215T0000Z-210216T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KILX.WS.W.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.CON.KILX.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Effingham-
Including the cities of Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville,
Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston,
Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, and Effingham
241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. For the Wind Chill
  Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20
  below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast
  Illinois.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6
  AM CST Tuesday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST
  Monday. An extended time with periods of moderate snowfall is
  expected, resulting in large snowfall totals.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. The
  cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in under
  30 minutes.

 

 

6-10"

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Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing.  May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting.  We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack.  Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's.  All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer.  I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads.  Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb.  If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier.  Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here.  I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds.  Let the fun begin :lmao:

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

Lake County, Indiana is also included in the warning based on my NWS forecast.  Is that correct?  Or at least part of the county??

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing.  May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting.  We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack.  Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's.  All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer.  I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads.  Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb.  If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier.  Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here.  I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds.  Let the fun begin :lmao:

At least I-65 will be smooth sailing with no problems.

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night

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