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Everything posted by iluvsnow

  1. Despite all the head fakes, SSW's, vortex splits, high latitude blocking etc...the one constant you can take from this matter what the long range models say....persistence rules the day.....sadly. Maybe the deck finally shuffles next winter.
  2. I have been watching winter weather patterns for decades. One immutable truth is that, with a few exceptions here and there (December '89 to the rest of winter was the king of all exceptions) persistence is the best tell of long range forecasting. Despite the back and forth, wild model swings, SSWs, vortex splits and so forth, when this winter's history is bet is the real cold stays in Asia....and we in the eastern US will remain, by and large stuck in a meh pattern. The one thing that keeps me going is the law of averages. Most have had 3 lousy winters in a row. We are due a reshuffle next winter. Hope I'm wrong about the rest of the season...but highly doubt if any of us who love snow and cold will see much this winter. Carry on! Do love your analysis though...keep posting. Hope springs eternal.
  3. Sun is out here in all its glory at 11:30 ...1/15. I have given it some thought and believe that Buckeye's boycott this season has had a deleterious effect on our snow. Come back Buckeye! Save us!
  4. Somebody has been hogging all the cold this winter......I wonder who? Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/15/2021 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -68.1°F 2 Tegyultya (Russia) 24967 -67.0°F 3 Amga (Russia) 24962 -66.5°F 4 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -66.1°F 5 Iema (Russia) 24477 -65.4°F 6 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -64.5°F 7 Sebyan-Kyuel' (Russia) 24462 -62.9°F 8 Namtsy (Russia) 24753 -62.7°F 9 Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia) 24668 -62.7°F 10 Krest-Hal'dzhaj (Russia) 24763 -62.5°F 11 Uchur (Russia) 31026 -61.8°F 12 Buyaga (Russia) 31011 -61.6°F 13 Nelkan (Russia) 31152 -61.6°F 14 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.2°F 15 Kjusjur (Russia) 21921 -61.1°F
  5. I find the daily world highs and lows at Here are the world's lowest daily temps.....not surprisingly....all in Siberia.... Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/29/2020 at 14:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -71.5°F 2 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -68.3°F 3 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -67.0°F 4 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -66.1°F 5 Susuman (Russia) 24790 -65.4°F 6 Nera (Russia) 24585 -65.2°F 7 Teplyj Klyuch (Russia) 24771 -61.8°F 8 Taskan-In-Magadan (Russia) 25700 -61.1°F 9 Tugoncani (Russia) 23589 -60.3°F 10 Ohotsky Perevoz (Russia) 24871 -58.0°F 11 Ust-Bakhapcha (Russia) 25707 -57.8°F 12 Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia) 24668 -57.8°F 13 Krest-Hal'dzhaj (Russia) 24763 -57.5°F 14 Ust'-Charky (Russia) 24371 -55.5°F 15 Curapca (Russia) 24768 -55.3°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet
  6. GFS slowly moving track NW. 18z moves the sweet spot from eastern Ohio to central Indiana to the northwestern half of the Buckeye state. If I were betting.....ORD just might win this one....IF there is enough cold air. REGIONS Prev. RunNext Run FORECAST GIFTREND GIF
  7. Enjoy. We live on vicariously. Dayton got a skiff and that's it!
  8. For we in Illinois, Indiana and western Ohio...time to start a charter membership in the Midwest version of the "Ji" club. Hell, Knoxville get a ^&$king 2 feet plus!
  9. I like the stuff rapidly expanding south of Cincinnati. Appears to be heading due north. We'll see what happens with that. Just want enough to whiten the ground for Santa. Maybe it will put him in a good mood and I won't get the coal treatment again this year.
  10. The new trends are for the track to be more west.....but not enough for we in Greene county. We must have been naughty this year. The Euro 6z map posted on the main thread is ax to the head worthy for us. Literally two counties east they would have a half foot. We southeast Dayton burber's....not so much. Merry Christmas to all in Kable's Mill. Living in Eagle Rise, just west of'll have more than me.
  11. Look for a correction....shifting the snow shield 50 miles East by the next map this PM. Scrooge in full beast mode! Oh well.....we do hype- to- hell very well here in Ohio!
  12. Yea....all of the Ohio/Indiana posters here miss his insight and rye humor. I stay away from the COVID thread(s).... just becomes too political and too easy to blow a gasket. His last post was back on April 16th.....and it was a classic COVID rant. Winter will not be the same without him here.
  13. So if it's not cold here....where is the cold? SIBERIA baby!!!!! Now this is COLD!!!!! Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/11/2020 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -67.2°F 2 Nera (Russia) 24585 -63.4°F 3 Iema (Russia) 24477 -63.2°F 4 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -63.2°F 5 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -62.5°F 6 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.6°F 7 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -61.2°F 8 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -61.1°F 9 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -60.9°F 10 Bestyahskaya Zveroferma (Russia) 24449 -56.9°F 11 Strelka Chunya (Russia) 24802 -56.9°F 12 Hatyryk-Homo (Russia) 24643 -56.6°F 13 Habardino (Russia) 24525 -56.2°F 14 Berdigestyah (Russia) 24758 -55.8°F 15 Ust'- Moma (Russia) 24382 -55.7°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet
  14. And how about a cherry on top with a possible polar vortex split with the main lobe taking up camp over Canada? nd the Euro at 50 MB shows a vortex split with primary to North America....
  15. My hats off to you TV guys. I'm a long time, occasional participant in my home forum (OV/Great Lakes). When I want real analysis on long term model runs, you can't beat what you post. Sadly the guys in my forum seldom give analysis...but rather obs and complaints. Hey I complain too. We've all had a lot to complain about the last few winters. The Mid-Atlantic group does a decent job...but I go there more for the in-fighting and humor than meteorology. So keep up the great work. It is appreciated by me and many other out of region enthusiasts.
  16. December 4th and the weenie's agitation grows rampant. The Midwest forum going to give Ji and the Mid Atlantic crew a run for their money this season.
  17. The Euro snow map above is only for 24 hours. This thing spins,, as alluded to, for 3 days. Here's the ten day total. If this comes to pass....I will never bitch again about Western Ohio snow holes....(Since it won't I can keep my bitch license).
  18. Just to put the Lucy football curse on we's the noon snow output for the next 10 days from the Euro. The first event brings a southern storm into the new cold air early next week. The phased storm passes over Western Ohio....Indiana/Michigan jackpots. However the Euro shows a second piece of energy coming up from the southwest at the end of the ten days that it believes will favor parts of Ohio. At the will give us a head start on our seasonal digital snow totals.....which is usually all we get.
  19. Attention Buckeye and fellow oft' depressed snow weenies....please report to tropical tidbits/pivotal weather maps ASAP. Our season of hope/followed by heartbreak is knocking on the door for another season of melodrama.....
  20. Euro says lake effect season starts early this season:
  21. And as always the infinitely detailed, pinpoint, way out on a limb, Accuweather guess at winter....
  22. Was frustrating watching the lines of storms pivot just north of us all afternoon and evening on Labor Day!
  23. Severe Weather Statement Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 529 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 OHC113-135-012145- /O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200801T2145Z/ Preble OH-Montgomery OH- 529 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL PREBLE AND WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... At 528 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near West Alexandria, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... New Lebanon and Pyrmont. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. To report severe weather, go to our website at and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3969 8450 3971 8454 3983 8447 3972 8436 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 230DEG 18KT 3972 8446 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ Campbell
  24. Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!