iluvsnow

Larry Cosgrove thinks a brief respite and then winter returns..... https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6768153727691030528/

Then you won't like reading this..... https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6768153727691030528/

All in all, in Bellbrook, we made the most out of a sad situation. Switched from sleet....and even some freezing rain for a while to snow about 9:00 PM. Then got moderate to heavy snow for 4 or 5 hours. Ended up with about 5 inches. We are the last holdouts...still using the shovel method to clean off the drive and walkways Still snow globes and 15....and totally exhausted. One of the toughest shovels I can remember. Maybe finally time for the blower. Of course if I do....it will no doubt curse things and we will go years before its needed.

Definitely pound town snow in Bellbrook going on 10 PM on Monday night. I will tell you this....after letting the dog out for a final squirt.....it will be no fun cleaning up the concrete on the walks and drive. Looks like a few hours of good snows on top of the glacierfied ground. Much rather shovel just snow.

Here is a hard lesson I have learned in watching these models leading up to show time....if you truly want to count on snow....you need a 100 mile pad to feel safe.....especially at go time.

In Bellbrook we got about a half hour of pounding snow....but that was an hour ago....since....nothing but heavy sleet.

Yep.....EE....OH weather knows his stuff. Hats off to him.....pounding snow now in Bellbrook. Can we keep it though?

A mix of sleet and parachute sized flakes in Southeast Dayton now. Virtually no wind.

WTOD is the warm tongue of death. We weenies ascribe that term to the intolerable upper warm air layers in the atmosphere that seem to always screw Ohioans out of their snow storms. I don't believe the storm actually is going further northwest....its just that a river of warm air aloft appears to be deeper and more entrenched than the models suggested earlier.

Pretty sad to have a ground temp of right around 20 and a forecast of up to almost a foot of snow....and we end up with sleet/freezing rain.

The heavy radar returns are here now and its all sleet in Southeast Dayton. Bust city!

The 18z High res says "Hey NWS ILN.....better update your forecast"....Not just sleet instead of snow....freezing rain is now what to expect. Never....never underestimate the WTOD.

This is not good news. Had a few snowflakes here on the southeast side of Dayton....now light freeing rain.....the WTOD is an evil ogre for us in Ohio.

Right on I-71 says the High Res Canadian at noon. Too close for comfort. Would be nice just to be safely in all snow and not worry....

Rgem actually a bit better than the NAM/GFS....at least has the snow/sleet line about a county and a half further SE.

Did they kick you off the Butler B-ball board?

ILN just revised. Areas north of Dayton along I-75 are expecting 8-11 or more.....the rest of ILN area 6-9 or more. IND has virtually their entire area in 8-11 or more.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OHZ062&warncounty=OHC057&firewxzone=OHZ062&local_place1=3 Miles NW Xenia OH&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=39.7174&lon=-83.9805

And the Kuchera for both storms from the 12z GFS.....

And the noon GFS trends the Thursday/Friday system further east. This NON Kuchera 10-1 map looks like a Kuchera map for both storms for most of us.....

GFS for the late week storm takes a decided move East....

For Southeastern Indiana and Western 2/3rds of Ohio.....noon GFS says the densest, heaviest snow is in our back yard. 10-1 ratio is still gold for us.

It's a MIRACLE! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OHZ061&warncounty=OHC113&firewxzone=OHZ061&local_place1=Overlook-Page Manor OH&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=39.7541&lon=-84.1154

IND pulls out the WSW for early next week. When will ILN do the same? https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=INZ047&warncounty=INC097&firewxzone=INZ047&local_place1=Southport IN&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=39.6596&lon=-86.1166

Also in Bellbrook....1 mile west of EE I measured 5.5. Where was this in December? Wife and I shoveled out and now await what lies ahead.....