iluvsnow

As the old axiom goes...."a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while." Just once for we Bellbrookers!

Carver, that 1058 HP over Montana triggered a thought that the set-up mirrors the great Arctic outbreak of Feb 8th - 13th of 1899. If you check out this excellent analysis of what is considered the most severe cold event to ever hit this nation....it is eerily similar to what some of the models currently project for the same time period....only 122 years later...... http://www.heidorn.info/keith/weather/almanac/arc2009/alm09feb.htm

I don't expect a lot of melting. The ground is frozen below the snow and the existing snow is dense. We had three inches of snow in Dayton Saturday night...and it rained all day Sunday with mid 30 temps....and still have a very compact inch or two....with an inch or two of fluff now on top. When the ground is not frozen its much easier for snow to melt....when the ground is frozen....not so much.

Despite all the head fakes, SSW's, vortex splits, high latitude blocking etc...the one constant you can take from this winter......no matter what the long range models say....persistence rules the day.....sadly. Maybe the deck finally shuffles next winter.

I have been watching winter weather patterns for decades. One immutable truth is that, with a few exceptions here and there (December '89 to the rest of winter was the king of all exceptions) persistence is the best tell of long range forecasting. Despite the back and forth, wild model swings, SSWs, vortex splits and so forth, when this winter's history is written....my bet is the real cold stays in Asia....and we in the eastern US will remain, by and large stuck in a meh pattern. The one thing that keeps me going is the law of averages. Most have had 3 lousy winters in a row. We are due a reshuffle next winter. Hope I'm wrong about the rest of the season...but highly doubt if any of us who love snow and cold will see much this winter. Carry on! Do love your analysis though...keep posting. Hope springs eternal.

Sun is out here in all its glory at 11:30 ...1/15. I have given it some thought and believe that Buckeye's boycott this season has had a deleterious effect on our snow. Come back Buckeye! Save us!

Somebody has been hogging all the cold this winter......I wonder who? Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/15/2021 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -68.1°F 2 Tegyultya (Russia) 24967 -67.0°F 3 Amga (Russia) 24962 -66.5°F 4 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -66.1°F 5 Iema (Russia) 24477 -65.4°F 6 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -64.5°F 7 Sebyan-Kyuel' (Russia) 24462 -62.9°F 8 Namtsy (Russia) 24753 -62.7°F 9 Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia) 24668 -62.7°F 10 Krest-Hal'dzhaj (Russia) 24763 -62.5°F 11 Uchur (Russia) 31026 -61.8°F 12 Buyaga (Russia) 31011 -61.6°F 13 Nelkan (Russia) 31152 -61.6°F 14 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.2°F 15 Kjusjur (Russia) 21921 -61.1°F

I find the daily world highs and lows at eldoradoweather.com. Here are the world's lowest daily temps.....not surprisingly....all in Siberia.... Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/29/2020 at 14:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -71.5°F 2 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -68.3°F 3 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -67.0°F 4 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -66.1°F 5 Susuman (Russia) 24790 -65.4°F 6 Nera (Russia) 24585 -65.2°F 7 Teplyj Klyuch (Russia) 24771 -61.8°F 8 Taskan-In-Magadan (Russia) 25700 -61.1°F 9 Tugoncani (Russia) 23589 -60.3°F 10 Ohotsky Perevoz (Russia) 24871 -58.0°F 11 Ust-Bakhapcha (Russia) 25707 -57.8°F 12 Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia) 24668 -57.8°F 13 Krest-Hal'dzhaj (Russia) 24763 -57.5°F 14 Ust'-Charky (Russia) 24371 -55.5°F 15 Curapca (Russia) 24768 -55.3°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

GFS slowly moving track NW. 18z moves the sweet spot from eastern Ohio to central Indiana to the northwestern half of the Buckeye state. If I were betting.....ORD just might win this one....IF there is enough cold air. REGIONS Prev. RunNext Run FORECAST GIFTREND GIF

Enjoy. We live on vicariously. Dayton got a skiff and that's it!

For we in Illinois, Indiana and western Ohio...time to start a charter membership in the Midwest version of the "Ji" club. Hell, Knoxville get a ^&$king 2 feet plus!

I like the stuff rapidly expanding south of Cincinnati. Appears to be heading due north. We'll see what happens with that. Just want enough to whiten the ground for Santa. Maybe it will put him in a good mood and I won't get the coal treatment again this year.

The new trends are for the track to be more west.....but not enough for we in Greene county. We must have been naughty this year. The Euro 6z map posted on the main thread is ax to the head worthy for us. Literally two counties east they would have a half foot. We southeast Dayton burber's....not so much. Merry Christmas to all in Kable's Mill. Living in Eagle Rise, just west of you.....you'll have more than me.

Look for a correction....shifting the snow shield 50 miles East by the next map this PM. Scrooge in full beast mode! Oh well.....we do hype- to- hell very well here in Ohio!

Yea....all of the Ohio/Indiana posters here miss his insight and rye humor. I stay away from the COVID thread(s).... just becomes too political and too easy to blow a gasket. His last post was back on April 16th.....and it was a classic COVID rant. Winter will not be the same without him here.

So if it's not cold here....where is the cold? SIBERIA baby!!!!! Now this is COLD!!!!! Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/11/2020 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Ojmjakon (Russia) 24688 -67.2°F 2 Nera (Russia) 24585 -63.4°F 3 Iema (Russia) 24477 -63.2°F 4 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -63.2°F 5 Agayakan (Russia) 24684 -62.5°F 6 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.6°F 7 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -61.2°F 8 Delyankir (Russia) 24691 -61.1°F 9 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -60.9°F 10 Bestyahskaya Zveroferma (Russia) 24449 -56.9°F 11 Strelka Chunya (Russia) 24802 -56.9°F 12 Hatyryk-Homo (Russia) 24643 -56.6°F 13 Habardino (Russia) 24525 -56.2°F 14 Berdigestyah (Russia) 24758 -55.8°F 15 Ust'- Moma (Russia) 24382 -55.7°F Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

And how about a cherry on top with a possible polar vortex split with the main lobe taking up camp over Canada? nd the Euro at 50 MB shows a vortex split with primary to North America....

My hats off to you TV guys. I'm a long time, occasional participant in my home forum (OV/Great Lakes). When I want real analysis on long term model runs, you can't beat what you post. Sadly the guys in my forum seldom give analysis...but rather obs and complaints. Hey I complain too. We've all had a lot to complain about the last few winters. The Mid-Atlantic group does a decent job...but I go there more for the in-fighting and humor than meteorology. So keep up the great work. It is appreciated by me and many other out of region enthusiasts.

December 4th and the weenie's agitation grows rampant. The Midwest forum going to give Ji and the Mid Atlantic crew a run for their money this season.

The Euro snow map above is only for 24 hours. This thing spins,, as alluded to, for 3 days. Here's the ten day total. If this comes to pass....I will never bitch again about Western Ohio snow holes....(Since it won't I can keep my bitch license).

Just to put the Lucy football curse on we Ohioans....here's the noon snow output for the next 10 days from the Euro. The first event brings a southern storm into the new cold air early next week. The phased storm passes over Western Ohio....Indiana/Michigan jackpots. However the Euro shows a second piece of energy coming up from the southwest at the end of the ten days that it believes will favor parts of Ohio. At the least...it will give us a head start on our seasonal digital snow totals.....which is usually all we get.

Attention Buckeye and fellow oft' depressed snow weenies....please report to tropical tidbits/pivotal weather maps ASAP. Our season of hope/followed by heartbreak is knocking on the door for another season of melodrama.....

11/18/20

Euro says lake effect season starts early this season:

And as always the infinitely detailed, pinpoint, way out on a limb, Accuweather guess at winter....