iluvsnow

BAMWX CEO Michael Clark with a fresh (12/4) analysis of the month and a half ahead. A technical look at what's driving the coming warm period and what he sees beyond. Take it for what it's worth.

Here's a very good analysis from Michael Clark, CEO of BAMWX this morning (12/4) on what he believes will happen now through January. Excellent technical analysis of what he sees ahead. He gives permission to share across all platforms.

For the techno-casters who are trying to figure out what is driving the pending anomalously cold pattern for much of the US, I direct you to a great technical offering from Webberweaher (@webberweather) on X. Pretty interesting stuff.

I love snow here again from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley forum. You guys remain my go to for real long range analysis for we peons west of the Apps. The orange T means something good may be cooking lol. At any rate, very appreciative of the insight, as our forum is Great Lakes focused (I'm in SW Ohio). They don't get excited unless there's a one or two footer headed for the Chicago area. Keep it up!

And it looks like the CMC caves for the tropical remnants to soak the eastern Ohio Valley. Drought begets drought!

This has gotten almost as nerve racking as watching the model runs for snow storms in the winter. Will the remnants of Francine bring much, much needed rain to the eastern Ohio Valley like the CMC says....or be stopped in her tracks by the strengthening upper ridge over the northeast, like the GFS and Euro says. My water bill in Dayton needs the Canadian to score the coup!

Here in Bellbrook just southeast of Dayton....the southwestern one half of the view are completely cloud free....no cirus....no cumulus....completely cloud free. The sun will start cooking soon. This as of 11:00 AM.

Same dilemma here in Bellbrook. Don't have an answer yet in my mind. Watching the forecast and optimistic we might have a fairly sunny day. Whatever is decided on the drive or not drive, stay away from the Interstates. They will be a mess. I have plotted a back country route into eastern Indiana if that's what I decide. My sister lives in Nashville Indiana, She is near the middle of the cone, thus a long duration period of totality. She told me retailers in town are selling parking spots for up to $150, with no refunds it ifs overcast. lol

Was just reading about the "most anomalous" weather month in US history....March 1843. Fascinating reading. It included a huge midmonth snowstorm in Tennessee and 25 degree below normal temperatures for the month of March for much of the central and eastern US. Fort Snelling in St. Paul Minnesota averaged an unbelievable 4 degrees above zero for the month. Snow fell in Tennessee well into April. Just wonder what kind of meteorological setup could have produced such weather. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284436645_March_1843_The_Most_Abnormal_Month_Ever https://www.weather.gov/ohx/18430315

And to think fans....this might be the primo event of the winter.....sad times indeed!

A season best....actually season total now....2.5 just SE of Dayton in Bellbrook. Nothing but rain on the horizen for the foreseeable future. And so it goes. Looks like yet another well below average snowfall season.

For all of the hype about this winter, its January 18th and still waiting for my first inch of snow for the winter. With long range looking warm, this pip squeak of an event may be it.

The sad thing here is we haven't had even an inch yet and we are approaching mid January. And after the dry cold spell...I am expecting warm and wet again. Maybe we set a record with a winter without snow.

It's how we roll in Ohio and the Miami Valley....snow hole of the Midwest!

We live in Ohio...we know how this will go. Two back to back slobberknockers go NW of us.....we stay warm and rain. Then, the the third either goes too far southeast,,or, just goes poof and it gets cold over backside snow showers. How we've seen this movie many times before.

Based on the synoptic set-up, after Tuesday's rainer.....we have opportunities for some dogs.....maybe even some big dogs if timing and wave placement works out the rest of the month. Someone will cash in. The Ohio Valley is due.

As always, I will be checking in on your region and your winter threads this season. Your knowledge, and enthusiasm are contagious. Being in a contiguous region to our Ohio Valley, I know that what comes up from the south and west....affects you guys first. Here's to a great snow season ahead, for both of our regions.

Mark it down....the first happy hour digital snow storm of the season.....and we're off and running.......

Is it too late to bet? Xenia, OH Natural Disasters and Weather Extremes USA.com http://www.usa.com › Ohio › Xenia, OH A total of 73 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Xenia, OH. Distance (miles), Date, Magnitude, Start Lat/Log .I Van Wert, OH Natural Disasters and Weather Extremes USA.com http://www.usa.com › ... › Van Wert, OH A total of 62 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Van Wert, OH. ... * The information on this page is based on ...

I don't know about Van Wert...but Xenia may argue with you on the tornado capitol of Ohio.

And six hours later.....poof!!!!!!!

Returned a week ago from a 12 day sojourn to Alaska. Bucket list trip with my daughter. Fairbanks to Denali on the Alaska Railroad. 3 days in the park...then train ride to Anchorage. The constant daylight was freaky, especially in Fairbanks. Fortunately we departed before mosquito season hit full force. With the ground frozen under about a half foot of top soil there is standing water everywhere. Perfect for the little blood suckers to breed. All in all a great trip. Fresh cool and dry air, beautiful scenery and lots of snow on the mountains. Highly recommend.

As usual....Cromartie is hiding in his palms. His March torch forecast is frost bitten.

I concur. The absolutely only saving grace was a white Christmas and the preceding Arctic outbreak. Too many of these turds in a row. Let's hope the coming El Nino is a weak one and shakes things up so we have a better winter. Cheers till next fall!

Crappy spring in coming. Where was this MJO in the dead of winter? What an amplitude in Phase 8!!!!