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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:
Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. 
I don't want to get fooled again. 
I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! 
 
 
 

How much snow did you get bro?

Just under 3 inches. I mean, I liked it, love snow always, but I love it most when it is falling heavy and visibility is down. 

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

They are guidance and we bought into it for days. 

You’re the met so this comes with a great deal of respect but that was four days ago and showed that kind of historic snow for 2 runs. And I think one of them was 18z. The GFS wasn’t close the other way for run after run for days. Euro at least corrected quickly, and has been very consistent since. 

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This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

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1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

Not over yet brother . Coastal won't be cranking till tomorrow.  I bet u see accumulation through Tues imo .

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

Don't forget Texas.

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO

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36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! 

BA7201DC-A783-40F9-A80B-0F3065CFC9E7.jpeg

You are dumping on a data simulation of snowfall amounts 156h in the future?

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO

ah ok ty

 

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Just now, Ruin said:

hmmm just took a look at current and future radar and the future radar isnt showing anything like the models are showing for tomorrow :( Myabe it hasnt been updated yet?

idk what "future radar" you're using, but there's a 99% chance it's total crap. Most apps/sites that use "future radar" are HORRIBLE. 

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29 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

They are easy to pin down... they suck for this area 95% of the time but we choose to accept guidance that produces a pipe dream just like the one poker hand that works out of 100 that keeps us coming back for more. 

Okay, guess we’ll see. Of course you have no defined limits of what I’m hoping for and vs what a pipe dream is, so you’d never admit your own error. Pointless to even try to discuss. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

idk what "future radar" you're using, but there's a 99% chance it's total crap. Most apps/sites that use "future radar" are HORRIBLE. 

accuweather and intilicast. Yeah i wasnt sure how good or bad those radars are when they do future radar's

 

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34 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

In fairness, NONE of the models have verified, so perhaps the best strategy is to simply trust the climo and play the percentages based on that.

Try that here and you'll get banned.

Although it's historically the best approach to forecasting. 95% experience and probabilities, 5% guidance

Never made it over 3 inches here anyway.

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