Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 euro is like 5-10" for most of us...jack of 8-12" for Leesburg to Westminster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Better vs 0z for sure with the back end lovin 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: From @Ellinwood I'm too fast for ya! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 To my amateur eyes... this Euro run looks like a better H5 setup for a capture nearer to the coast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: From @Ellinwood You got Ninja'd. By Mark Ellinwood. It's rare to see my house in his blue. I'm officially psyched. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Better vs 0z for sure with the back end lovin it actually caved more to the GFS than the GFS caved to the euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: To my amateur eyes... this Euro run looks like a better H5 setup for a capture nearer to the coast? In case you missed it earlier. Can u tell us where the consensus is? 1 hour ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Yeah so I guess the consensus is the CMC can't be trusted unfortunately, the EC solution where the band sets up further SE seems more plausible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Its a general 6-12 throughout the subforum. Jersey gets raked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Like the cold temps on the euro, not too much QPF after the WAA for dc but I’ll still take this all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 People are probably going to whine that Euro is like 6-8" for most vs. 10-14", but it's REALLY close to something bigger. 500mb evolution was much nicer than 0z. It has that jackpot in south-central Jersey, but not any big flags why that couldn't be over us where all the other guidance puts it. Precip's a bit paltry during the WAA and then during the transfer, for reasons I'm not entirely sure of. Shortwave is stronger than previously. I think this juices up. 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Better vs 0z for sure with the back end lovin It cut your totals in half...it isnt a great run for the cities...the 0z suppressed solution looks to be history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Better than 00z, but nowhere near as good as 12z yesterday. Not stalling east of Cape May anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Like the cold temps on the euro, not too much QPF after the WAA for dc but I’ll still take this all day. Yeah 00z was better for us. WAA went north of us and we don’t really get into the coastal too much. I’m putting all my eggs into the WAA as anything on top of that is gravy. I didn’t like what the Euro did for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It cut your totals in half...it isnt a great run for the cities...the 0z suppressed solution looks to be history If I expected to get like 15" I guess I'd be disappointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Could be a blip, but coastal is closer in to the coast at 66 hours than 0z looking at h5 this run was actually closer to a tucked solution...but it just missed. The confluence backed off some and it almost but the H5 opened up at the last minute instead of phasing in with the coastal which cut off the moisture transport from the coastal into our area and failed to really activate the deformation zone. Instead the focus became the fgen region to the north of the developing coastal. But its a delicate thing...its not like there was no deform zone...it just wasnt the beast it could be if we get a better transfer/phase which we will if that feature in New ENgland can BACK OFF just a bit more. This is one of those runs where the clown map says it was worse but it was closer to something BIG. Unfortunately it did show the "fail" relatively (it still would be a decent snowfall) option for DC with the split where the best lift from the WAA stays south of DC and the lift associated with the FGEN ahead of the h5 and from the developing coastal stays north. That is often the "DC split" miller b thing. But get the h5 to not open up and phase in and suddenly that weak band is dumping on DC Monday. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Do those double-barrelled lows ever actually materialize, or is that the Euro's way of showing that its not sure where the actual center is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Feels like the Euro is moving toward the other models. I dont know if I buy that jump out in the Atlantic of that low at the 70hour mark. I feel like this thing is likely to tuck more with the progression. But then again I am novice and will differ to better more informed on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It kind of is similar to NAM with evolution where the h7 low is farther N once it spins near the coast you get the coastal ccb which rakes NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The Euro and NAM continue to be the models with more impact from the energy moving through Canada and New England. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In case you missed it earlier. Can u tell us where the consensus is? Wait for the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro was an improvement for me in Moco over the last run. PSU has got to be happy too with the Euro lol. NW burbs are a little safer now. GFS is obviously what a lot of us want. 8-12" seems like a great forecast right now and it's not surprising to see a bunch of those pop up. I will be SO happy if I get my first double digit snowfall ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Wait for the EPS. ? You said that the consensus was that the CMC was wrong. I was asking where did you see that because I'm curious and want to know more on why it was wrong. Can you link me to the posts that said this? TIA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @stormtracker...illustration... look how the h5 jumps over us...we need it to stay closed and phase over VA not jump too off the coast like that. But it was VERY close...the track is perfect just need it a little more amplified and the trough less positive so it doesn't open up. But look at the trend the last 3 runs...one more adjustment like that and it will. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looking at h5 this run was actually closer to a tucked solution...but it just missed. The confluence backed off some and it almost but the H5 opened up at the last minute instead of phasing in with the coastal which cut off the moisture transport from the coastal into our area and failed to really activate the deformation zone. Instead the focus became the fgen region to the north of the developing coastal. But its a delicate thing...its not like there was no deform zone...it just wasnt the beast it could be if we get a better transfer/phase which we will if that feature in New ENgland can BACK OFF just a bit more. This is one of those runs where the clown map says it was worse but it was closer to something BIG. Unfortunately it did show the "fail" relatively (it still would be a decent snowfall) option for DC with the split where the best lift from the WAA stays south of DC and the lift associated with the FGEN ahead of the h5 and from the developing coastal stays north. That is often the "DC split" miller b thing. But get the h5 to not open up and phase in and suddenly that weak band is dumping on DC Monday. You said more elegantly what I was trying to get at. It's pretty close to something Ukie-GGEM like. Nitnoid details in precip and banding. After 24hrs of forecast divergence, pretty good consensus today at 12z. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: Wait for the EPS. We are past the time for ensembles to outweigh the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The Euro and NAM continue to be the models with more impact from the energy moving through Canada and New England. yes but the euro trended a little better this run. It was the first time it nudged the "other way" in 36 hours. The trend is USUALLY (not always) to relax features up there a little at the last minute. Not a ton but usually once you get inside 48 hours you see some relaxation of the flow to the northeast as the next wave approaches. This isn't any great insight just stating typical model bias over the years...of course every situation is unique. I was happy to see the euro start to back down with that crushing feature even if just a little. If you loop the H5 trend at 72 hours from the last 3 runs its a little closer to a better phase for us imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @psuhoffman did you see that northern stream energy on the backside of the trough dive in? It was like 12-18hrs too late, but if that could speed up... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker...illustration... look how the h5 jumps over us...we need it to stay closed and phase over VA not jump too off the coast like that. But it was VERY close...the track is perfect just need it a little more amplified and the trough less positive so it doesn't open up. But look at the trend the last 3 runs...one more adjustment like that and it will. Yup I see. For some reason, I'm not at all disturbed by the Euro. I think it continues to adjust...well hope my be a better term. It has the NAM with it, but it's weird that the GFS jumped fully on board with the good solution. They traded places. Not gonna lie, wish it was the other way around, but I don't jump off the ledge after one run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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