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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

To my amateur eyes... this Euro run looks like a better H5 setup for a capture nearer to the coast?

In case you missed it earlier.   Can u tell us where the consensus is?

1 hour ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

Yeah so I guess the consensus is the CMC can't be trusted unfortunately, the EC solution where the band sets up further SE seems more plausible.

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People are probably going to whine that Euro is like 6-8" for most vs. 10-14", but it's REALLY close to something bigger.  500mb evolution was much nicer than 0z.  It has that jackpot in south-central Jersey, but not any big flags why that couldn't be over us where all the other guidance puts it.  Precip's a bit paltry during the WAA and then during the transfer, for reasons I'm not entirely sure of.  Shortwave is stronger than previously.  I think this juices up.  

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Like the cold temps on the euro, not too much QPF after the WAA for dc but I’ll still take this all day.  

Yeah 00z was better for us.  WAA went north of us and we don’t really get into the coastal too much.  I’m putting all my eggs into the WAA as anything on top of that is gravy.  I didn’t like what the Euro did for MBY.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Could be a blip, but coastal is closer in to the coast at 66 hours than 0z

looking at h5 this run was actually closer to a tucked solution...but it just missed.  The confluence backed off some and it almost but the H5 opened up at the last minute instead of phasing in with the coastal which cut off the moisture transport from the coastal into our area and failed to really activate the deformation zone.  Instead the focus became the fgen region to the north of the developing coastal.  But its a delicate thing...its not like there was no deform zone...it just wasnt the beast it could be if we get a better transfer/phase which we will if that feature in New ENgland can BACK OFF just a bit more.  This is one of those runs where the clown map says it was worse but it was closer to something BIG.  Unfortunately it did show the "fail" relatively (it still would be a decent snowfall) option for DC with the split where the best lift from the WAA stays south of DC and the lift associated with the FGEN ahead of the h5 and from the developing coastal stays north.  That is often the "DC split" miller b thing.  But get the h5 to not open up and phase in and suddenly that weak band is dumping on DC Monday.  

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Euro was an improvement for me in Moco over the last run. PSU has got to be happy too with the Euro lol. NW burbs are a little safer now.

 

GFS is obviously what a lot of us want.

 

8-12" seems like a great forecast right now and it's not surprising to see a bunch of those pop up. I will be SO happy if I get my first double digit snowfall ever.

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@stormtracker...illustration...

look how the h5 jumps over us...we need it to stay closed and phase over VA not jump too off the coast like that.    But it was VERY close...the track is perfect just need it a little more amplified and the trough less positive so it doesn't open up.  

hfgif.gif.4e839383d08f3465edf30d67dfc69b45.gif

But look at the trend the last 3 runs...one more adjustment like that and it will.  

trendgif.gif.d52d8ab4983f76c3e426464aa57b8b2e.gif

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looking at h5 this run was actually closer to a tucked solution...but it just missed.  The confluence backed off some and it almost but the H5 opened up at the last minute instead of phasing in with the coastal which cut off the moisture transport from the coastal into our area and failed to really activate the deformation zone.  Instead the focus became the fgen region to the north of the developing coastal.  But its a delicate thing...its not like there was no deform zone...it just wasnt the beast it could be if we get a better transfer/phase which we will if that feature in New ENgland can BACK OFF just a bit more.  This is one of those runs where the clown map says it was worse but it was closer to something BIG.  Unfortunately it did show the "fail" relatively (it still would be a decent snowfall) option for DC with the split where the best lift from the WAA stays south of DC and the lift associated with the FGEN ahead of the h5 and from the developing coastal stays north.  That is often the "DC split" miller b thing.  But get the h5 to not open up and phase in and suddenly that weak band is dumping on DC Monday.  

You said more elegantly what I was trying to get at. It's pretty close to something Ukie-GGEM like.  Nitnoid details in precip and banding.  After 24hrs of forecast divergence, pretty good consensus today at 12z.

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro and NAM continue to be the models with more impact from the energy moving through Canada and New England.

yes but the euro trended a little better this run.  It was the first time it nudged the "other way" in 36 hours.  The trend is USUALLY (not always) to relax features up there a little at the last minute.  Not a ton but usually once you get inside 48 hours you see some relaxation of the flow to the northeast as the next wave approaches.  This isn't any great insight just stating typical model bias over the years...of course every situation is unique.  I was happy to see the euro start to back down with that crushing feature even if just a little.  If you loop the H5 trend at 72 hours from the last 3 runs its a little closer to a better phase for us imo.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker...illustration...

look how the h5 jumps over us...we need it to stay closed and phase over VA not jump too off the coast like that.    But it was VERY close...the track is perfect just need it a little more amplified and the trough less positive so it doesn't open up.  

hfgif.gif.4e839383d08f3465edf30d67dfc69b45.gif

But look at the trend the last 3 runs...one more adjustment like that and it will.  

trendgif.gif.d52d8ab4983f76c3e426464aa57b8b2e.gif

Yup I see.  For some reason, I'm not at all disturbed by the Euro.  I think it continues to adjust...well hope my be a better term.   It has the NAM with it, but it's weird that the GFS jumped fully on board with the good solution.  They traded places.  Not gonna lie, wish it was the other way around, but I don't jump off the ledge after one run

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