Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

One thing I'd like to point out...

The EURO is still not what it used to be. Sure it's schooled the GFS over the last week in the long range. But it's missed on it's share of storms/details, even in the short range, over the last couple of years. The GFS is terrible outside of 120 hrs but its scores increase as we get closer to game time. I'd be taking a blend of everything at this point. EURO is by far the furthest south solution. No other model is showing what the euro is showing. 

Also, even PSU has pointed out that even with a suppressed, more south solution, there is usually a bump north in the last 24-48hrs. hmm...if you are using that reasoning, even with a Euro solution, PSU would still get his deform.... 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Been my experience though that the euro doesn’t do well with WAA into cad. Just my opinion

I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Mon 10 am

1B678559-C0B3-4BDF-B987-DD5E46BEDBFE.png

Didn’t somebody bring up yesterday the idea of a dual low off the coast and the model tends to focus on the one closest to heavy convection?  This picture shows just that I think. Maybe a blip?  Or maybe a continuance of that model’s trend. To me it looks looks like the coastal gets going way way too late and it’s too far east to help us much. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

It seems to me one of the best places to be for this one is out towards SW VA. All guidance seems to give that are a no nonsense thump of 7-12" followed by some light fluff

No doubt. Looks like that area gets a really nice thump from WAA and doesn't really have to worry as much about getting any coastal action to easily hit warning level criteria and then some.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate  model. 

And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. 

It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. 

Some things I think I am recapping here:

  • This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore)
  • It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others
  • The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system
  • At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday
  • I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want
  • We are in the game, and it is not over. 

I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. 

Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more!

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The east parade continues. And if you are New England you can’t be feeling too good about this one.

It supports the op, which has to be the case at this range, but yeah comparing the 2 runs, a little more clustering on the eastern edge at 6z. Not that much though. Could still see the next op run make a shift NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • mappy locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...