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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

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32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. 
 

Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast...

 

P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition 

Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas. 

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So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County?

Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing.

 

image.thumb.png.ad5e4d5dc40688a1d8a52f5c961ee4a2.png

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Just now, mattskiva said:

So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County?

Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing.

 

image.thumb.png.ad5e4d5dc40688a1d8a52f5c961ee4a2.png

Warm air aloft sucks for the highest elevations.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Warm air aloft sucks for the highest elevations.

So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there?

 

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35 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 

Columbia Death Band = alive 'n well

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1 minute ago, mattskiva said:

So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there?

 

Saturday Night
A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 

This is the PZF for my brother’s location in ellicott city, MD. All snow. Interesting.... to say the least.  

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1 minute ago, mattskiva said:

So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there?

I'm not sure what they are thinking, and someone more knowledgeable than me, which is frankly, anyone, can chime in, but until the coastal gets going, the winds will generally be out of the south, and at those elevations, there is nothing to keep cold air in place.

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Just now, jayyy said:
Saturday Night
A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 

This is the PZF for my brother’s location in ellicott city, MD. All snow. Interesting.... to say the least.  

Keeping it generic but I’m not sure why Monday doesn’t just say rain or snow. A high of 37 obv wouldn’t work for snow lol

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas. 

hey i sent you a pm:)

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

hey i sent you a pm:)

Which is not so private anymore.  Banter thread?  
 

over or under?  2 minutes before Mappy disappears this post.

eta:  Here at 1550’ in Augusta County nw of Staunton I am rooting for the models with a heavier waa front end thump.  The coastal is sketchy for those of us south and west and counting on 6” over 30 hours doesn’t inspire much confidence.

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16 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County?

Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing.

 

image.thumb.png.ad5e4d5dc40688a1d8a52f5c961ee4a2.png

I saw that too. Head scratcher because the LWX forecast for Grant Co just next door is for all snow

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Keeping it generic but I’m not sure why Monday doesn’t just say rain or snow. A high of 37 obv wouldn’t work for snow lol

Uncertainty. That area is very close to the primary and at elevation the warming aloft effs it up for snow initially. Beyond that, the coastal and the dynamics associated with that may be too far east, so any snow may be a function of NW flow and orographic lift on the backside, thus the forecast of snow showers. Ofc snow showers out there can lead to pretty significant accumulations.

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18z Euro has a 5a start time Sunday in DC.  Earlier as you go SW from DC.  Looking at the 500H through 72, slightly more confluence to my non-expert eye over NE.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

1612332000-UsrulQ86W28.png

Score. 1+ QPF all snow up this way. About 1.3” by my brothers in Ellicott city, but they could very well see 0.25” of QPF in the form of slop. Trying to decide where to be for this one. Climo says stay put. This setup, however, gives me the feeling the eastern half of the CWA west of the bay has the best chance to score from the coastal. 
 

Decisions, decisions!

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Can’t wait for 8:30! Should be getting the 18z EPS around then correct?

18z Euro running now. The front end waa thump is a bit further south.

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Frankly the gfs has caved as much as I expected it too until very late. The differences left imo are from its errors with resolving the thermals and that’s not going away.  

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z also looks great at 90. Slightly mixy but the coastal transfer looks like it's already starting to paying dividends.

1612180800-ggAPGVIwaz0.png

Its further SE/colder than 12z.

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I like. Mix seems better than pure rain, so okay. Is there any dry spot present anywhere towards the end, or is that south too?

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32 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Which is not so private anymore.  Banter thread?  
 

over or under?  2 minutes before Mappy disappears this post.

eta:  Here at 1550’ in Augusta County nw of Staunton I am rooting for the models with a heavier waa front end thump.  The coastal is sketchy for those of us south and west and counting on 6” over 30 hours doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Over, but you included relevant weather stuff so I left it ;)

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Just now, CAPE said:

1612180800-hPQFFAJl420.png

That’s actually a very fair distribution of snow. If anyone complains, They’re going into the snowhole.

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