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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case.  The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is.  It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now.     Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump.  That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT.  That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE.  I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup  

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32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case.  The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is.  It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now.     Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump.  That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT.  That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE.  I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup  

Ray just threw his phone and computer into a ditch on the highway.

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Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 

Agree. We look and watch but weigh it very lightly. 

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