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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Prelim assessment on unusually high confident D6-8  day lead storm potential...

At this time - appears >50% chance for higher impact. This may come as a more anyway ...but could also foundation upon duration alone.  

I would like to see another 4 to 6 dm cored out of the negative tilting/quasi closure as this is carving rather slowly compared to recent climo, from roughly the interior M/A lat/lon to between CC/'Raymond'mark ( ...uh, I mean ..) in order to really up the ante on this. It should be cautioned that 30 to 32.7 F 24 hours straight of moderate snow with embedded enhancing from the usual frontogenic/MESO/CSI, which both would happen, but are presently completely invisible to any determinism, becomes a major impact to civility. 

This is a new one by recent inference/standards - ... we'll have to go back in history for familiarization for how this type of system behaves.

Slow moving quasi cut-off lows that are deepening during their translation: ... they'll have a field's -worth of idiosyncrasies about them that cannot be assessed/resolved this far out  - but just be leery about any assumptions based upon recent experience.

Hello all -

1"/hr rates protracted does a job on a demography anyway one cuts it, should that play out.  The general early risk assessment appears to follow after K.U. more classically ... impressionably impacting from interior VA to Maine.  This may come with a problems ranging from transportation, to grid infrastructure, basic snow removable gets exhaustive ... and I'm interested in Tide monitoring with slow moving coastal and long sourced fetch coming in around the N wall of the cyclonic well ( seeing some guidance < 990 now! ) means getting the ocean into wave tizzy either way...tide is depending.

This event's governing super synoptic evolution arrives in a teleconnector 'Langrangian region' - artful metaphor... but area between ~ 90 and 60W/ 35 and 50N is equally stressed in all directions, such that whatever meanders into that region gets stuck for lack of better words... That region is becoming a pivot node between an transient +PNAP expression west  ( which may in fact be rooted in a broader PNA mode change ...tho the verdict is sketchy on that... ).  Meanwhile, the latitude collapse of erstwhile -NAO ( western limb ) blocking is trying to move down into the lower Maritime of Canada as the upper air confluence breaks apart. - pin the tale on the donkey.   Not to aver any anolog, but 1969 is an example of this sort of nodal trapped disturbance.

Because of these synoptic and more super-synoptic 'synergy' type signals, this would seem to be a higher confidence scenario for a D6-9 time range.  It is notable that most operational guidance ( that I have seen ) ..seem to fall into place around a common scope - I'd almost take the Euro as the course of most likely utilization of the above concepts and go ahead and assume that a native speed/progression bias in most GFS -related guidance, probably attempts to compensate for this by smearing through that concept  - it's not allowing the system's wherewithal to maximize.  Which it may not... ?   But I got to tell you ... this really smacks hard as one of the fixed deals at extended leads, because the physics et al at multiple planetary scales are constructively interfering.

SO, summary:

-- you don't have to have exotically deep Hollywood bombs to create big problems.  You just need to have a couple few parametrics really maximize.   The problem with slow movers is that they are given time to relay ... onset lift... --> CCB mechanics --> dynamic UVM CSI -->  ...etc...these are given gestation hours and that's well achieved with 990 against a polar higher in a negative tilt.  Jet cross sections look ideal...such that ( similar by behavior alone) a Jan 19, 1978 998 mb low did 20" at Logan in 24 hours....  You don't have to red-carpet the storm - 

-- duration of long-shore fetch and tides, which unlike that '78...this a large circulation with some low pressure SD depth and a pretty long isobaric layout.

-- 31.5 F type mid aggregate paste falling through a -1C isothermal W-NW cyclonic arc is a problem for sustained QPF/grid ...particularly in the M/A but even up our way. 

so prelim risk ...and we'll add or take away as needed in the count-down.  But at this time, this has a duration, multi-faceted look to it for me.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Euro precip field looks a lot like March 1958, in the KU book.  That one had huge snows in NEMD and SEPA, moderate in NYC and CT, big agin into EMass.

Yup ... and when we get into analogs...  most K.U.'s are cousins -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a pretty potent storm on that depiction, and in a great spot.   We take. 

Hints at 'warm seclusion'  ... yeah.

I wouldn't be too concerned with details like the surface wind trajectory ...  If it were even worth fretting over at this range, I'd caution that the confluence/upper air NAO blocking node that's passing SE through eastern Ontario and it's attending surface polar high will probably jam a NE flow down the Maine coast and pack a CF into the CC Canal ...maaybe as far inland as Taunton but again - these are meaningless distinctions for now.  We need to get this D4 to start up with that...  Although speculation is fun - don't get me wrong.  

I personally feel ( also ..) the GFS has a tendency to warm BL too much beyond short range.  I see it with green and blue mixed QPF at 525 dm thickness ...ah, yeah, too often

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I grow more impressed with each passing cycles ...now blending the Euro/GGEM/GFS regarding the western ridge ... too much astonishment -their respective ensemble means are on the same page with an impressive +PNAP inflation. It's not just the operationals... the EOFs are hollowing out the field SE of ACK...

Even if transient ..it's just perfectly timed wit that -NAO decay to garbage collect any S/W shrapnel coming over the ridge arc ultimately ..having nowhere else but to phase in ... And we only see that as much as we can given the coarse nature of the guidance graphics but honestly ..there's more to those wave kinematics than that - that whole constructive feedback stuff is real folks...and this 18z GFS is now down < 528 dm with the resultant coupled nadir in the EC roll up ... and it's not really even delivered an impressive wind momentum yet...

This one isn't predicated on ridge in the west this time, it predicated on what the Pac delivers that will/would ultimately get caught in amber in that aforementioned nodal Langrandian concept.   It's just powdered stall scenario - like we haven't frankly seen in years ... - coming from the synoptic super structure.  I'm waiting for the one run that dumps in a 110 knot S/W jet core and this things really going to go bonkers - It's got everything else

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WinterWolf

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I grow more impressed with each passing cycles ...now blending the Euro/GGEM/GFS regarding the western ridge ... too much astonishment -their respective ensemble means are on the same page with an impressive +PNAP inflation. It's not just the operationals... the EOFs are hollowing out the field SE of ACK...

Even if transient ..it's just perfectly timed wit that -NAO decay to garbage collect any S/W shrapnel coming over the ridge arc phase in ...and we see that as much as we can given the coarse nature of the guidance chartage but honestly ..there's more to those wave kinematics than that - that whole constructive feedback stuff is real folks...and this 18z GFS is now down < 528 dm with the resultant coupled nadir in the EC roll up ...

This one isn't predicated on ridge in the west this time, it predicated on what the Pac delivers that will/would ultimately get caught in amber in that aforementioned nodal Langrandian concept.   It's just powdered stall scenario - like we haven't frankly seen in years ... - coming from the synoptic super structure.  I'm waiting for the one run that dumps in a 110 knot S/W jet core and this things really going to go bonkers - It's got everything else

Wow...impressive info there Tip.  I’m excited  that you’re impressed...lol. 

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