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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

So two nights ago, the NAM was just coming into range and it was trustworthy. Last night, it wasn't trustworthy. Is the NAM trustworthy tonight?

Not yet 

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1.4 - 2.2" liquid across the entire area on the NAM through 84 hours and still snowing at the end. Ratios above 10:1 for at least part of the event. Gorgeous run.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Yeah, that’s about as good as it gets. Far NW is still fringed but that’s a crusher for 90-95% of us. 

I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust. 

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Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

The best part is it's still snowing past 84 hours lol

The slow movement means the snow will linger quite a while. The heavy stuff shuts off once the east mid level flow backs down but there should be some semblance of CCB for some additional light amounts. 

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Just now, Neblizzard said:

I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust. 

I don't think we can be too sure of anything at this point. The overrunning still barely makes it to our latitude, and the wraparound could easily end up weaker or further southeast.  This is definitely a tenuous setup. Small upper level changes will lead to hugely different local weather outcomes.

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Another model that I wouldnt trust at this range but the rgem at hour 48 is noticeably south of the nam at 48 

Trust the north trend

Pv isn't going to suppress this

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That's about as far north as I want the NAM for my backyard. The mid level low tracks are still good for coastal areas but there's a dryslot and mild 850mb air that makes it to SE areas. Hellacious front end thump though before anything like that which the 12"+ amounts come from. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That's about as far north as I want the NAM for my backyard. The mid level low tracks are still good for coastal areas but there's a dryslot and mild 850mb air that makes it to SE areas. Hellacious front end thump though before anything like that which the 12"+ amounts come from. 

The NAM is really cold too, nyc is upper 20s most of the storm 

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Another model that I wouldnt trust at this range but the rgem at hour 48 is noticeably south of the nam at 48 

Perhaps but it's looking significantly better than its 18Z run so far.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The NAM is really cold too, nyc is upper 20s most of the storm 

Yep, that's about picture perfect for NYC for big impact. Now we see how much more NW trend we have left to go in other models. 

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42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM probably gonna be way north although I don’t bother taking it seriously after 60 hours 

What it shows up to 48hrs is likely legit and by then it has a wall of snow from the overrunning coming in. 

The Nam's crazy totals are possible given the very slow movement and moisture feed. It's gonna snow for a while. 

However I'd rather play it safe for now. Let's see what the others show.

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1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

Clown map and still snowing at hr 84

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

As I predicted it ends up noticeably south of NAM but yes wow this storm has potential to produce some huge totals for whoever gets the jackpot 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

As I predicted it ends up noticeably south of NAM but yes wow this storm has potential to produce some huge totals for whoever gets the jackpot 

less posting more reading buddy...your analysis is just wrong

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

As I predicted it ends up noticeably south of NAM but yes wow this storm has potential to produce some huge totals for whoever gets the jackpot 

It was still much better than 18z. 

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4 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Clown map and still snowing at hr 84

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Yeah I'll definitely take that lol. And it's still snowing here when the run ends, there's a CCB feature overhead. 

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6 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

You think NAM was crazy, Philly is gonna approach 30 inches on this RGEM run.  

We def have to pay attention now. If it snows for 30-36+ hrs within a CCB you're talking 2'+ totals somewhere.

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Just now, snywx said:

Much improved for up here. The north trend is real 

I was never worried much about suppression, it was in the back of my mind this morning but it looks like this one's following the trend of 90% of storms. Question now is when the trend stops. 

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