Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What are the odds that we have mixing issues on Long Island ?

Right now I’d say small odds but we have until tomorrow evening I’d say before we can lock in an all snow event. As we know it won’t take a huge change to bring the issues back. Before 12/17 there was a day or so head fake before the amped trends began and we got the nice event but inland got much more. This is a somewhat different setup and the confluence will only allow so much amping but you can never rule it out. 

[HVSnowLover]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures. 

For now 

[MJO812]

Euro will be better this run

Pna ridge looks better

[David-LI]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro will be better this run

Pna ridge looks better

OK keep up the PBP for us please 

[bluewave]

Hail in Manhattan Beach and snow in Manhattan a few days later.

 

[MJO812]

Wow

[MJO812]

Still snowing

30 hours of snow for NYC

[KeithB]

With this Euro run....another 20-40 mile shift north and it's a pretty much an area wide jackpot. It's that close of a call....and with 72 hours from the event, that margin of error is easily in play!

[sferic]

1 minute ago, KeithB said:

With this Euro run....another 20-40 mile shift north and it's a pretty much and area wide jackpot. It's that close of a call....and with 72 hours from the event, that margin of error is easily in play!

OOZ all the way till the Euro

[Sn0waddict]

That snow map doesn’t look quite right for CT given the precip maps you also provided. Seems like a good trend regardless though.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, KeithB said:

With this Euro run....another 20-40 mile shift north and it's a pretty much and area wide jackpot. It's that close of a call....and with 72 hours from the event, that margin of error is easily in play!

Easily. I see all these detailed snow maps like its within 24 hours. First flakes don't fall in NYC for like 60 hours. 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

That snow map doesn’t look quite right for CT given the precip maps you also provided. Seems like a good trend regardless though.

its still snowing at the end.  so you could probably add on.

[Nibor]

 

Stolen from the New England thread. Really good look.

[Snowlover11]

i tell you one thing most models have that jersey jackpot zone.

[kat5hurricane]

And remember the Euro is still trending. It was basically a whiff as recently as last night and has been trending north ever since. It could be a windshield wiper effect and trend back south but it seems like most models are making that usual north trend as we get closer to the event.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

And remember the Euro is still trending. It was basically a whiff as recently as last night and has been trending north ever since.

To me 18z looks similar to 12z but more qpf for NYC

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still snowing

30 hours of snow for NYC

Manalapan and Sandy Hook the places to be. Sharp cutoff on the southern end

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro will be better this run

Pna ridge looks better

The improvements in the PNA ridge should really make this pop.

Given the stalled out nature of this plus the deep flow of moisture someone's gonna score big. 

[KeithB]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

To me 18z looks similar to 12z but more qpf for NYC

Definitely a shift north. Gonna be a really interesting set of model runs tonight!

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

To me 18z looks similar to 12z but more qpf for NYC

Considerably more north. 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The improvements in the PNA ridge should really make this pop.

Given the stalled out nature of this plus the deep flow of moisture someone's gonna score big. 

Small steps from the Euro are encouraging. I think you're right. Someone is going to get big totals. Right now the bullseye is near Monmouth, but that could easily shift with how far we're out.

[kat5hurricane]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

To me 18z looks similar to 12z but more qpf for NYC

12z was a big jump north and definitely a noticeable shift north at 18z. Still a sharp cutoff north of the city but I don't think the north shifts are done yet.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

12z was a big jump north and definitely a noticeable shift north at 18z. Still a sharp cutoff north of the city but I don't think the north shifts are done yet.

They probably aren’t I’d wager. Late north shifts happen almost every storm. Just hopefully it isn’t more than 50 miles or so, that way most of us can jackpot and the mix can stay offshore. 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They probably aren’t I’d wager. Late north shifts happen almost every storm. Just hopefully it isn’t more than 50 miles or so, that way most of us can jackpot and the mix can stay offshore. 

It’s unfortunately almost impossible for eastern LI to stay all snow and I84 corridor to get good snow but hopefully everyone gets in on this. 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

It’s unfortunately almost impossible for eastern LI to stay all snow and I84 corridor to get good snow but hopefully everyone gets in on this. 

That is one crazy 850mb easterly moist flow coming in on this. This’ll be a very nice event where that can be maximized and the cold air stands firm. It’s not a bombing out low where there’ll be 3-5”/hr bands I think but we can rack up totals well over a foot over the duration it’ll last. I’d pay more attention to where that easterly jet gets than the snow maps necessarily. 

The Euro that run as is gets the mix line close to the twin forks for a time and seems like it changes SE MA over. Hopefully it doesn’t amp much more. 

[crossbowftw3]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It’s unfortunately almost impossible for eastern LI to stay all snow and I84 corridor to get good snow but hopefully everyone gets in on this. 

Can't have one to have the other but I'd gladly sit this one out to give LI an all snow event

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Can't have one to have the other but I'd gladly sit this one out to give LI an all snow event

Yea your area has at least gotten decent snow the last two winters. The area between I95 and I84 is more overdue. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That is one crazy 850mb easterly moist flow coming in on this. This’ll be a very nice event where that can be maximized and the cold air stands firm. It’s not a bombing out low where there’ll be 3-5”/hr bands I think but we can rack up totals well over a foot over the duration it’ll last. I’d pay more attention to where that easterly jet gets than the snow maps necessarily. 

The Euro that run as is gets the mix line close to the twin forks for a time and seems like it changes SE MA over. Hopefully it doesn’t amp much more. 

The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south 

[Lawnguyland]

I can't remember last time we had an all snow event on l.i.  And I am in the snow removal business! Every storm in last bunch of years, aside from 1 to 2 inch storms, seem to be snow, rain and sleet. A foot of plain snow would be great! Especially if it takes 30 hrs to fall, easier to keep up with. 

Really appreciate all the thought you all put into making this such a great resource for forecasts, knowledge and sometimes humor!

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south 

Normally a NNE wind is better than E wind during coastal but in this case that’s not the case.