Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

But what's up with the giant question mark off the coast?

Tune in next model run to find out!

[nesussxwx]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Good lord rgem

 

Still snowing at this frame for the whole forum. Would be a 15-24"+ explorated.

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, RedSky said:

But what's up with the giant question mark off the coast?

Questioning its own sanity after dropping 30+ inches in places.

[uncle W]

you gotta love tracking snowstorms...one day its to far south...the next day its to far north...theres time for more wobbles before it gets here...

[sferic]

Just now, uncle W said:

you gotta love tracking snowstorms...one day its to far south...the next day its to far north...theres time for more wobbles before it gets here...

You nailed it perfectly

[nesussxwx]

8 minutes ago, snywx said:

Much improved for up here. The north trend is real 

indeed, we'll see how tomorrow goes.

[jm1220]

For NYC and LI on the 0z NAM the max lift is just below the -12 to -18C layer so ratios could be decent but not maximized (on this run). For best ratios you want the lift centered between the -12 and -18. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

you gotta love tracking snowstorms...one day its to far south...the next day its to far north...theres time for more wobbles before it gets here...

Absolutely, and sometimes it comes down to now casting.

[jm1220]

For White Plains-that's perfect for high ratio snow. So for NYC that's as far north as you'd want this to go on this NAM run. 

[Metasequoia]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you gotta love tracking snowstorms...one day its to far south...the next day its to far north...theres time for more wobbles before it gets here...

In theory, the size of the wobbles diminish every subsequent model run and we are only 48 hours out.

[sferic]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

In theory, the size of the wobbles diminish every subsequent model run and we are only 48 hours out.

Exception to that rule MARCH 2017

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll tick north to a point. There's a limit to how much further north it can get. 

The blocking/confluence is sharper than with the Dec storm. The western ridge axis is also further east so the storm won't hug the coastline.

60 hours before the december storm everybody thought there was no way in hell the low could come that far north and the axis of heaviest snow would be Binghamton to Albany. Obviously that is not going to happen this time but there is still a chance of it coming a little further N and W. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For NYC and LI on the 0z NAM the max lift is just below the -12 to -18C layer so ratios could be decent but not maximized (on this run). For best ratios you want the lift centered between the -12 and -18. 

Also note in purple the freezing layers that could show what precip is left after 0z Tue could be sleet or sleet/rain mix (on this NAM run). Notice the small mid level warm layer and surface above freezing. Thankfully the crazy lift and heavy precip comes in before any warm layers arrive and the lift (and real precip) is gone by then. 

[Metasequoia]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

Exception to that rule MARCH 2017

Yeah...always exceptions. I remember that one.  I experienced my first thunder sleet. 2 inches of LE sleet. Still a pretty cool storm for many. 

[kat5hurricane]

19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

But what's up with the giant question mark off the coast?

Holy Mother of God? which will turn into exclamation points if these runs hold through tomorrow.

[jdj5211]

You think this is nice. Wait til you see the GFS!!! 

[MJO812]

Amazing models tonight 

Crush job 

[jm1220]

GFS looks quite nice to me for most, best is focused on the coastal area but it trended NW again. Has a crazy Monday afternoon/evening snow burst that comes through on the easterly 850mb jet for coastal areas. It peters out north of the city. We'll see how far north that crusher snow batch can make it on that easterly jet along with max ratios. 

[Jeff Grann]

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

You think this is nice. Wait til you see the GFS!!! 

I prefer the 2' on the ICON IMB

[HVSnowLover]

Gfs ticked a bit north and wetter 

[eduggs]

Those aren't lingering light snow showers at 84 hours on the RGEM. That's bands of moderate snow. Steadily accumulating snow.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs is quick to decay the CCB and I think the amounts it shows are too light after 72hrs. 

Mesos will have a better handle on this.

[wishcast_hater]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Amazing models tonight 

Crush job 

Crush job tonight then disappointment tomorrow then tomorrow night hope returns. It always seems to play out this way. I just want some snow in the I84 neck of the woods. 

[Gravity Wave]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs is quick to decay the CCB and I think the amounts it shows are too light after 72hrs. 

Mesos will have a better handle on this.

GFS is usually too dry for big storms, I don't think this time will be the exception.

[jm1220]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

Crush job tonight then disappointment tomorrow then tomorrow night hope returns. It always seems to play out this way. I just want some snow in the I84 neck of the woods. 

I think in the end you'll be fine (you're in Dutchess County N of I-84? If that far maybe/maybe not). Maybe not the highest amounts but good ratios will help and prolonged duration of lighter snow it looks like. These NW bumps seem to happen every time. I at least don't think you get shut out. 

[Metasequoia]

Some of the models tonight almost make this storm look like Jan 2016 redux.

[wishcast_hater]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think in the end you'll be fine (you're in Dutchess County N of I-84? If that far maybe/maybe not). Maybe not the highest amounts but good ratios will help and prolonged duration of lighter snow it looks like. These NW bumps seem to happen every time. I at least don't think you get shut out. 

About 10 miles north of I84. Got 3 inches of snow from Monday’s storm. Hoping for a crush job so I don’t have to drive into the city as I do every day. 

[friedmators]

GFSv16 is a big hit for what its worth.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

Some of the models tonight almost make this storm look like Jan 2016 redux.

This isn't really like Jan 2016. That was more miller A and El Nino fueled-you could track the moisture from it right to the tropical Pacific. This is more miller B-coastal transfer from a primary. It won't make it a lousy event but spawned differently. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

GFSv16 is a big hit for what its worth.

Oh yes, wow and it's still snowing here. I really hope this model has a clue, it did better for the 12/17 event than regular GFS.