Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[jm1220]

Final 

[HVSnowLover]

Cmc is way NW 

[Metasequoia]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't really like Jan 2016. That was more miller A and El Nino fueled-you could track the moisture from it right to the tropical Pacific. This is more miller B-coastal transfer from a primary. It won't make it a lousy event but spawned differently. 

Yeah... I'm not talking about all the meteorological mechanics (which are cool), but the geographic spread / depth of accumulations and long duration. Has still a ways to go though. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

About 10 miles north of I84. Got 3 inches of snow from Monday’s storm. Hoping for a crush job so I don’t have to drive into the city as I do every day. 

I think when all is said and done we will see 6+ but I'm not sure about a crush job. 

[sferic]

Damn  00z CMC put Liberty in 7 inch zone 12z was next to nada

[friedmators]

GEM with the CNJ death band...nice little 20-30"

[Snowlover11]

holy smokes lol cmc throws a nuke

[sferic]

Onward to Euro to see if NW trend continues

[jm1220]

Just now, sferic said:

Damn  00z CMC put Liberty in 7 inch zone 12z was next to nada

Story's not close to being written on this yet. I wouldn't count anyone in this subforum at least as really being out. Might be shaping up as down here a crazy 10-12 hour burst of our snow and well NW a lighter 18 hour snow with the CCB feature. 

[sussexcountyobs]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Final 

What's final? So it's set in stone now?

[jm1220]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

What's final? So it's set in stone now?

Final for that run (and it wasn't, there was minor additional even after this panel). 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Story's not close to being written on this yet. I wouldn't count anyone in this subforum at least as really being out. Might be shaping up as down here a crazy 10-12 hour burst of our snow and well NW a lighter 18 hour snow with the CCB feature. 

Cmc is on its own planet right now it has Boston changing to heavy rain and snow to the Canadian border

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

holy smokes lol cmc throws a nuke

While I think the cmc run for NE is ridiculous models do seem to be coming into better agreement of a jackpot band somewhere between Philly and NYC

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Cmc is on its own planet right now it has Boston changing to heavy rain and snow to the Canadian border

There's a piece of energy that dives down the trough and enhances the coastal low so much that it lurches it north enough to have SE Mass be mostly rain on that run I'd say. GGEM has the low near Marthas Vineyard. The prolonged easterly mid level flow doesn't help and brings warm air in to start. The GFS v16 keeps that area plenty cold and buries them just like us. So like I said, tomorrow will be interesting. 

[White Gorilla]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Cmc is on its own planet right now it has Boston changing to heavy rain and snow to the Canadian border

CMC and NAM 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

While I think the cmc run for NE is ridiculous models do seem to be coming into better agreement of a jackpot band somewhere between Philly and NYC

If there's a story so far tonight I'd say it's for a crazy fronto band to come through and dump very heavy rates especially from eastern NJ on east, when earlier it seemed like it would be more modest but longer lasting on the easterly mid level jet. NW would pile up a bit less snow but have a CCB feature with good ratios sit overhead while there's a relative dryslot over the immediate metro area. 

[BlizzLuv]

10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

holy smokes lol cmc throws a nuke

I'd sign up for this...

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If there's a story so far tonight I'd say it's for a crazy fronto band to come through and dump very heavy rates especially from eastern NJ on east, when earlier it seemed like it would be more modest but longer lasting on the easterly mid level jet. NW would pile up a bit less snow but have a CCB feature with good ratios sit overhead while there's a relative dryslot over the immediate metro area. 

A little similar to the December storm although this front end band looks even more lethal and as opposed to totally shutting off precip or change to sleet even in the semi dry slot it still seems like light snow for the metro area. 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

A little similar to the December storm although this front end band looks even more lethal and as opposed to totally shutting off precip or change to sleet even in the semi dry slot it still seems like light snow for the metro area. 

The Dec front end batch was good for a few hours but then went shredded which allowed the warm air to take over when the precip finally did restart, we wasted up to 0.5" as rain. Hopefully this can be a colder version of that storm, if not for that it would have been easily 12"+ in my backyard. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Dec front end batch was good for a few hours but then went shredded which allowed the warm air to take over when the precip finally did restart, we wasted up to 0.5" as rain. Hopefully this can be a colder version of that storm, if not for that it would have been easily 12"+ in my backyard. 

Should be colder, cold airmass and low dewpoints. There will be warming eventually but seems to be after most of the precip is done. 

[Nibor]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

What happened to Walt ? He hasn't posted in 13 hours ..............

He's a quality over quantity kinda guy. 

[SnoSki14]

Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm. 

[sferic]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm. 

Ukie is an outlier..EURO next

[Franklin0529]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm. 

Ukie is way south 

[Nibor]

Ukmet is east of 12z. Looks like the 12z euro.

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm. 

Ukie decided to not join the party. Way south. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Ukie decided to not join the party. Way south. 

It's an outlier at this time. 

[jm1220]

UK is fine for the city and S/E but an outlier. Wouldn't be worried about it. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

UK is fine for the city and S/E but an outlier. Wouldn't be worried about it. 

It's been all over the place. Every other models went NW.

[weathermedic]

When does OKX hoist the winter storm watches? I’m thinking with the Sat AM forecast packages.