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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

No reason to think it wouldn’t be adjusted. This is normal waffling and I would personally expect a shift back south enough to narrow the goalposts of the jackpot zone 

It’s also not quite a December 2020 redux. We aren’t seeing 30 inch totals showing up to I90 which is always a red flag for the coast. The main show so to speak is still Southern PA to around NYC in terms of the frontogenisis mega band. Inland would get long duration light to moderate snow. 

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It’s also not quite a December 2020 redux. We aren’t seeing 30-40 inch totals showing up to I90. The main show so to speak is still Southern PA to around NYC in terms of the frontogenisis mega band. Inland would get long duration light to moderate snow. 

Agreed, everyone north of 84’s prospects look a bit better today (I’d adjust my call to 5-8 if I had to) but the bullseye of the higher totals are still definitely where they have been for the last day or so 

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

RGEM holds serve with the CCB decaying over I-95. Hopefully the NAM was just a hiccup, the 850 low track seemed difficult to believe.

I expect NAM to tick SE today. If it holds today it may be legitimately on to something. I’ve noticed if the NAM is consistent it’s often on to something  and if it changes run to run it has no clue.

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We’ve seen this story before for the coast, still have a day and a half for trends. And usually the end result is 25-50 miles NW of end modeling. Some snow is coming, but overnight modeling is showing that push in the mid levels NW of the city and coast. 

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4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

We’ve seen this story before for the coast, still have a day and a half for trends. And usually the end result is 25-50 miles NW of end modeling. Some snow is coming, but overnight modeling is showing that push in the mid levels NW of the city and coast. 

Other than NAM every model still has The highest totals I80 southward. Let’s see what today’s brings 

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9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

We’ve seen this story before for the coast, still have a day and a half for trends. And usually the end result is 25-50 miles NW of end modeling. Some snow is coming, but overnight modeling is showing that push in the mid levels NW of the city and coast. 

Right now alot of snow is coming

Enjoy because there will be more in February 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The heaviest snowfall axis will come down to where the storm stalls out. Euro is east of the Delmarva so the heaviest snowfall lines up along the I-78 corridor. The NAM tucks in east of ACY so this pushes the heaviest snow north of I-80. Both models make internal sense. So we just have to see where the storm tracks for the final outcome.

Euro still gives POU a foot.  We 84 folks take! 

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40 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Agreed, everyone north of 84’s prospects look a bit better today (I’d adjust my call to 5-8 if I had to) but the bullseye of the higher totals are still definitely where they have been for the last day or so 

I have noted that about the bullseye too...which I happen to be inside for a change ( though this is all still subject to change and likely will ) so looks like it could be a decent storm...not an historical one, but so what?

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Oddly enough we'll likely see much more than with the Dec storm but NWS is keeping forecast amounts low.

The day before the December storm they had widespread 12-20" amounts in the forecast now it's more like 6-12"

I think it will be bigger for us but not by much....didn't we have a widespread 8-9? So we are looking at 6-10, maybe 12 right?

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23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I have noted that about the bullseye too...which I happen to be inside for a change ( though this is all still subject to change and likely will ) so looks like it could be a decent storm...not an historical one, but so what?

Yes, it doesn't have to be historic for snow lovers to be absolutely delighted.  

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oddly enough we'll likely see much more than with the Dec storm but NWS is keeping forecast amounts low.

The day before the December storm they had widespread 12-20" amounts in the forecast now it's more like 6-12"

Seems like they tend to do this when they’ve gotten burned with a forecast. Recency  bias. 

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oddly enough we'll likely see much more than with the Dec storm but NWS is keeping forecast amounts low.

The day before the December storm they had widespread 12-20" amounts in the forecast now it's more like 6-12"

They get burned with the big totals more often than not....

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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