Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Memory jogger and a great video from the February 1967 blizzard (a well know KU storm): 

PS I won't be offended if this gets moved to memory lane. 

I used to read about these storms during my college years using the NY Times on microfiche and enjoyed reading the weather forecasts from back then!

 

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Memory jogger and a great video from the February 1967 blizzard (a well know KU storm): 

PS I won't be offended if this gets moved to memory lane. 

There's a clip there of Two Winters to Remember, about the 77 and 78 winters in Evansville IN, my late mom's hometown. Averaging about 13 inches for an average winter, they were pummeled with blizzards and the national guard had to be brought in to dig people out and get them food. This would be unimaginable today.

[Nibor]

6z nam is amped and a coastal hugger. Interior gets smoked.

[Gravity Wave]

RGEM holds serve with the CCB decaying over I-95. Hopefully the NAM was just a hiccup, the 850 low track seemed difficult to believe.

[NorthShoreWx]

Shades of December.  Finger Lakes went from basically nothing to 19" from 0Z to 6Z on the NAM.  

[greenmtnwx]

Close the shades on this one for coastal folks.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Close the shades on this one for coastal folks.

It'll be fine. Gfs & Rgem held. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Close the shades on this one for coastal folks.

What are you even talking about?

[MJO812]

Winter Storm Watch for NYC 

 

6-9 inches 

[MJO812]

Wow

[SnoSki14]

Nam is a northern outlier and Ukie southern outlier. The rest basically jackpot the NYC metro. 

06 GFS/GEFS are excellent.

[RU848789]

NWS issued their updated snowfall maps, going with an 8-12" range for most of their counties in the Philly and NYC offices, but no 12-18" amounts, which is reasonable, given we're almost 48 hours out still and things can still deviate from their forecast (like the 6Z NAM with less or the 6Z RGEM with a lot more - and they have plenty of time to adjust upwards from 8-12" swaths if needed - the 8-12" amounts get the point across that a prety major snowfall is likely.  I didn't like how aggressive they got early on with the 12-18"/18-24" predictions, most of which didn't verify (and they backed off on them before the storm started). 

 

 

[snywx]

3 hours ago, sferic said:

What a jump from the earlier Euro, you, me @crossbowftw3and @snywx looking good

Things look much improved up here. Can’t deny that north trend. That 6z NAM run was a thing of beauty

[NJsnow89]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam is a northern outlier and Ukie southern outlier. The rest basically jackpot the NYC metro. 

06 GFS/GEFS are excellent.

Just remember that the icon is also in the same camp as the NAM. I wouldn’t discount anything yet. Also, last I checked, Euro jumped pretty far north as well. 

[weathermedic]

From Upton’s morning AFD:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The 00Z modeling has increased confidence in the occurrence of
a significant storm, but not eliminated any of the fcst
uncertainty wrt the details.

There still remains a high amount of uncertainty regarding the
rain/snow line as we get into Mon. With strong ely flow, it is
likely a coastal front sets up across sern LI. The challenge is
how much it pivots nwwd, and how much warm air aloft works into
the sys. The latter is highly track dependent. The ECMWF is the
warmest soln, with the NAM and GFS much colder.

The heaviest pcpn looks to occur during the day on Mon,
extending into early Mon ngt. A lingering band may then set up
somewhere in or near the cwa for the rest of the ngt as the
storm is slow to pull away.

A particularly deep low is not expected to develop with this
sys. However, there will be a tight gradient due to a 1030s high
sitting over Quebec. As a result, strong winds are likely with
this storm, and speeds have been ramped up in the fcst. Gusts to
around 60 mph seem likely at the peak of the storm, especially
ern LI.

A winter storm watch has been issued for most of the area. The
Twin Forks and sern New London have not been included attm
because of mixing concerns. If the models maintain a GFS/NAM
type track, the north fork and sern New London will likely need
to be included. The south for will be difficult due to the cstl
front. Orange county was not included in the watch as well.
This area may be too far west of the heaviest snow axis,
yielding lower confidence. It is possible this area may need to
be included in the future iterations if confidence increases.

A high wind watch/warning may be needed for the coastal areas
not covered by the winter storm watch. Otherwise, the wsw covers
wind hazards.

The low is still expected to linger over the area and not get
completely out until Tue ngt. As the strong advections cease,
pcpn rates are likely to be lower, with any banding more
sporadic thru the day on Tue and into Tue ngt.

 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Just remember that the icon is also in the same camp as the NAM. I wouldn’t discount anything yet. Also, last I checked, Euro jumped pretty far north as well. 

Weren't you just panicking about it being suppressed.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weren't you just panicking about it being suppressed.

there's no such things as trends, I think this was pretty well proven.  The models just jump around an average or mean and move towards the middle, which is what the correct solution will be

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Shades of December.  Finger Lakes went from basically nothing to 19" from 0Z to 6Z on the NAM.  

Nam isn't really the poster child for accuracy lol, besides isn't it getting discontinued soon?

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Just remember that the icon is also in the same camp as the NAM. I wouldn’t discount anything yet. Also, last I checked, Euro jumped pretty far north as well. 

it was way too far south before so naturally it's going to correct itself to the middle.

icon?  lol I thought that's Ant's model to use when he's being desperate for a snowy solution

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam is a northern outlier and Ukie southern outlier. The rest basically jackpot the NYC metro. 

06 GFS/GEFS are excellent.

Monday is going to be exciting, looks like this is going to be a photogenic all day windy snowstorm

[wdrag]

Original Posted Monday at 08:11 AM Jan 25. Del

615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip.  So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6"  with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. 

Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. 

There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. 

Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. 

CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. 

Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide)

Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues.  That's the reasoning basis for this update. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

shades of Jan 2016

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

there's no such things as trends, I think this was pretty well proven.  The models just jump around an average or mean and move towards the middle, which is what the correct solution will be

Which is why I don’t intend to just jump on what happened overnight, I would still expect things to level off with today’s runs to end up with that 95-84 jackpot but I can now reasonably say low-end warning amounts at least to where I’m at now

[LibertyBell]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

Which is why I don’t intend to just jump on what happened overnight, I would still expect things to level off with today’s runs to end up with that 95-84 jackpot but I can now reasonably say low-end warning amounts at least to where I’m at now

yeah I cant see anyone in the CWA getting less than 6 out of this

[tim]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

6z nam is amped and a coastal hugger. Interior gets smoked.

...if thats right all of long island goes to rain..temps are marginal..34-35 deg./east wind= rain.

> all 'future casts' show this.

>NWS has winter storm watch west of william floyd parkway..not the east end.

last nite felt good about outcome..this morning? not so good.

[crossbowftw3]

BGM high end map looks oddly similar to the first map they posted for 12/16-17...versus the expected. Both still probably make equal amounts of sense as of this point. 

[wdrag]

NWS severity index through 00z/2 and their snowfall forecast through 00z/2. 

 

NWS 

 

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, tim said:

...if thats right all of long island goes to rain..temps are marginal..34-35 deg./east wind= rain.

> all 'future casts' show this.

>NWS has winter storm watch west of william floyd parkway..not the east end.

last nite felt good about outcome..this morning? not so good.

The overnight runs were not a good trend for LI but that front end thump means business, this is a foot plus before any mixing/dryslot. Hope the nw trend stops though as any further NW  and it’s December all over again with long dry slot and mixing for a lot of us. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We were first worried about suppression and now we are worried about being this being far NW lol

Frustrating to never know which way you want it to trend lol. Now I want no trends, stay put lol 

[li_wx88]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The overnight runs were not a good trend for LI but that front end thump means business, this is a foot plus before any mixing/dryslot. Hope the nw trend stops though as any further NW  and it’s December all over again with long dry slot and mixing for a lot of us. 

Curious to see if the NW bump is being a bit overdone at the moment and we see it adjusted in the 12z's