Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Rjay]

@forkyfork.  What's the forkcast?

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

 

I commented about that about 6am this morning. 

[Rjay]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

all posts about so and so on channel 119 or twitter should go to the vendor thread

Yes but we're in between model runs.  It's been a bit since our last blockbuster.  This has the potential to be 12"+ in parts of our sub.  Let's have a little fun around here. 

[rclab]

Just now, Rjay said:

Yes but we're in between model runs.  It's been a bit since our last blockbuster.  This has the potential to be 12"+ in parts of our sub.  Let's have a little fun around here. 

Now I understand your avatar. As always .....

[Tatamy]

18z GEFS

 

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Why not though?  This has the potential to do so.  

potential, yes.  but to nail it and make a call on it? kinda early if you ask me, but each to their own.

[72bundy]

I feel were setting up for another stella

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, rclab said:

Now I understand your avatar. As always .....

Originally, it was me mooning Warlock (at least in my head it was).  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 72bundy said:

I feel were setting up for another stella

 

How so ?

[Rjay]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

potential, yes.  but to nail it and make a call on it? kinda early if you ask me, but each to their own.

His map is a bit too specific for me at this lead time but it def highlights the fact this could be a big one.  

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Rjay said:

His map is a bit too specific for me at this lead time but it def highlights the fact this could be a big one.  

Yes that’s basically what i meant to say.  potential is definitely on the table.  I just thing calling for 20+ is kinda pushing it, but definitely potential for someone to get it.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, 72bundy said:

I feel were setting up for another stella

 

not really.  The mid March 2018 event is a close match on track to a degree but better air mass now than it was that storm changes everything 

[snywx]

28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I understand fully. But look at the totals surrounding it. This is not an elevation storm, and areas south of there are high elevations also in Ulster. Probably higher I believe.

Downsloping with that NE flow. Anyone on the west side of those 3-4k hills/mountains are prob gonna suffer a bit from downsloping. Almost every piece of guidance has it 

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z GEFS

 

I think with that  look this is coming north, ensembles are usually se of OP

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, snywx said:

Downsloping with that NE flow. Anyone on the west side of those 3-4k hills/mountains are prob gonna suffer a bit from diwnsloping. Almost every piece of guidance has it 

I get it. But my real reason for that post was that means they think moisture will be pretty far north. That may be a good sign for the interior?

[wdrag]

Been away for 5 hours. No change to headline tonight...my guess is that we're locking onto an 8-16" event somewhere between I95-i84 with banding and downslope valley shadows modifying amounts.  Usually where the max qpf is where mix/rain intrudes. My guess is we'll see a mix to I95 but I could be too far northwest on that,  which benefits all our LI/PA/NJ big snowstorm folks. For now, I suspect somewhat lower amounts NORTH of I84 but reserve the right to change... Yes I could see pockets ~20" but that's with 24 hours snow and no sleet. Not confident enough to make any thread headline adjustments. Here's from WPC this afternoon. Will revisit around 615A

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@forkyfork.  What's the forkcast?

i really like the mid level track for nyc/nj/li and the system is loaded with moisture. interpret that as you wish

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I get it. But my real reason for that post was that means they think moisture will be pretty far north. That may be a good sign for the interior?

Not necessarily. With those elevations they usually make the best of whatever moisture is available. It’s gonna be pure fluff there. Hunter can prob squeeze 3” out of .15” LE

[RU848789]

Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...

 

 

[forkyfork]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i really like the mid level track for nyc/nj/li and the system is loaded with moisture. interpret that as you wish

ie there are going to be significant amounts but it's too early to be specific 

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Originally, it was me mooning Warlock (at least in my head it was).  

That still can be easily classified as fun, depending upon what you ate the day before. As always ....

[EastonSN+]

Just now, forkyfork said:

ie there are going to be significant amounts but it's too early to be specific 

Thanks. Hope southern 25,% of CT can get in on some of that too.

[Heisy]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...

 

 

My guess is if we see the euro go up, those maps will increase too

[HeadInTheClouds]

20 minutes ago, snywx said:

Downsloping with that NE flow. Anyone on the west side of those 3-4k hills/mountains are prob gonna suffer a bit from downsloping. Almost every piece of guidance has it 

Yup, NWS Albany often talks about downsloping in the valleys. 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i really like the mid level track for nyc/nj/li and the system is loaded with moisture. interpret that as you wish

For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures. 

[Blizzardo]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures. 

Somebody will...may not be you but somebody will...

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i really like the mid level track for nyc/nj/li and the system is loaded with moisture. interpret that as you wish

When this one is on board I usually buy some gas for the snow blower ( s ).

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures. 

We have to keep watching the mid level low tracks. This can trend back to a place where the 700/850 lows track NW of many and the dryslot and rain come back. There’s still time for that too. Right now it’s perfect for LI/NYC/central NJ but 72 hours left. 

[jm1220]

That said there’s definitely a nice fetch of moisture coming in on that easterly mid level jet around the stalled out/crawling low so it will go to town somewhere as that sits overhead. Some swath probably gets 10-15”+ in that region. 

[495weatherguy]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We have to keep watching the mid level low tracks. This can trend back to a place where the 700/850 lows track NW of many and the dryslot and rain come back. There’s still time for that too. Right now it’s perfect for LI/NYC/central NJ but 72 hours left. 

What are the odds that we have mixing issues on Long Island ?