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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Curious how much moderate precipitation actually makes it north of Baltimore. 

Agreed. Think it's going to be a close call for me. This might be a DC suburbs special.

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4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

So we can take it out back and give it what for!?! 

No I’m just perplexed by it is all. It’s interesting in sort of a disappointing way.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

No I’m just perplexed by it is all. It’s interesting in sort of a disappointing way.

"Interesting in sort of a disappointing way"  

We have the new subforum slogan

 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

But it’s not the surface temp in most places that’s the problem.

Copy.  It’s too warm somewhere between here and there.  

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I've checked a few different radar sources that are showing snow in places it's definitely not snowing. Not completely understanding why that is though

Whatever method the site uses to determine precip types is incomplete. Probably uses surface temp obs and upper air data that's not fine enough to detect the "warm layer"

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s too warm. 

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Whatever method the site uses to determine precip types is incomplete. Probably uses surface temp obs and upper air data that's not fine enough to detect the "warm layer"

Gotcha

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Just now, Steve25 said:

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

It was a delicate setup so not a big shock.  Models are not perfect either.  There has to be one that showed just plain rain.  Might bode well for the northern tier.  So not a total loss perhaps.  I want someone to report snow obs.  

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But it’s not the surface temp in most places that’s the problem.

There's a warm layer at 800 mb, but it should be overcome once the heavier stuff moves in..

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3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

It is funny - several different radars I have checked all show me well inside the blue, but it definitely ain't snow out there.

 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It was a delicate setup so not a big shock.  Models are not perfect either.  There has to be one that showed just plain rain.  Might bode well for the northern tier.  So not a total loss perhaps.  I want someone to report snow obs.  

Most showed it starting as rain and changing to snow after an hour or two. Pretty rough analysis in here so far.

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