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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Is this the thread where we talk about toys?

No.  Thats the tropical thread

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GEFS has continuously been getting juicier for the 28th threat. I'd imagine some good hits fit into that mean.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1878400.thumb.png.65bb063865b18e9967d22e9f19c38e54.png

One thing of note was the higher heights leading into the storm compared to 6z. This 6z's wettest panel FWIW

1140466599_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1878400(1).thumb.png.1542002c5f4bbaa5e1a17c6fc291a3fa.png

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1 hour ago, ryanconway63 said:

GFS is such a joke......Low off SC with mixing issues in Virginia.....smh

 

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

The r/s line on the GFS should not be that far north, at h168.

Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough.  With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough.  With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. 

Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

The Para is still stuck on 6z at 102.

:lol:

figures...right before it was to pound us

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

how madening is this?

I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm  

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Just now, frd said:

I be more comfortable with a Key West snowstorm  

i mean how can you have a high in the right place...low in the right place...prime climo and it shows greeen

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Just now, Ji said:

@psuhoffman how madening is this?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

I think we have AMPLE evidence that we’re losing snowstorms on the margins. We keep seeing crap like that in model runs. Some verify some don’t, but we’ve had multiple rain events over the last 5 years that weren’t perfect but I thought “that should have at least been some snow”.  Doesn’t mean we can’t snow anymore. Just means it’s harder. Maybe the high has to be 1035 instead of 1032 on some similar setup. Or a marginal pac airmass that barely worked for a 32 degree wet snow paste bomb 30 years ago is a 36 degree rain event now.  And yes it’s frustrating. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro ftw

its more ftt---it could be so much better

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro caving to GFS again for later next week

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

Almost like we've seen that map before

eqlBBzM.gif

 

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Just now, IronTy said:

12Z euro baby!

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_10to1-1878400.png

Remember that this includes snow from the Monday system. Here's what seems to be a better map. Also that doesnt include the fact that it's a fluff bomb for points NW

2089428521_ecmwf-deterministic-ma-snow_24hr_kuchera-1900000(1).thumb.png.1114eca85b46ee41141207ecf8904b76.png

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Remember that this includes snow from the Monday system. Here's what seems to be a better map. Also that doesnt include the fact that it's a fluff bomb for points NW

2089428521_ecmwf-deterministic-ma-snow_24hr_kuchera-1900000(1).thumb.png.1114eca85b46ee41141207ecf8904b76.png

That's a cheat, kuchera.   

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-

If it just turned the corner a little more and hugged the coast a touch more, we get a nice deform and it's major storm, if not pushing historical.

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Just now, IronTy said:

That's a cheat, kuchera.   

Consider the 850s during the heaviest part of the storm. The 850s get even colder after the low pulls offshore a bit (still snowing though). This certainly wouldnt be 10:1, especially for the elevated areas and places where their average ratios are already 12:1 or more.

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-t850-1856800.thumb.png.bc41aee1a7b0ca177da7d08eb5117539.png

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