Dec (Edit: Jan1/..2 ) multi-faceted ptype mess potential...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The later arrival of precip is what killed this for pike area ..given we already knew the airmass was what it was . The precip needed to arrive with the high pressure North or even NNE of Maine . Not some weak sauce high East of Maine a day later 

That’s why I questioned the title date of the thread , 31’st ? Things changed and the later start moved the frozen line North 

[ORH_wxman]

I've mostly agreed with Scott on this threat....meh for SNE but there was an outside chance that interior spots like ORH to the berks could see something more interesting.

Euro has never looked good for this icing threat in SNE....which is why I haven't really posted much on it. We saw some other guidance toy with the idea of a more impactful event, but they have trended toward the Euro (kind of predictably IMHO). Still have to watch for a few hours of glaze over the interior....even a little glaze can be a hazard. But outside of that, I don't see much. You'll have to go much further north to get some accumulating snow that breaches advisory threshold.

 

[White Rain]

For anyone interested, this was the Euro from last night. Still showing some decent ice in Berks and near Winchendon/Gardner. Nusiance ice down this way and into northern CT.

[PhineasC]

LOL CMC

[dryslot]

To bad the 12z ggem could not score one for once, Dam cold for the 01/02 event.

[dendrite]

Be wary of the clown maps with this since there’s going to be a period of sleet. 

[klw]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To bad the 12z ggem could not score one for once, Dam cold for the 01/02 event.

The GGEM hasn't scored on a major storm in this area in at least 12 days.

[dryslot]

Just now, klw said:

The GGEM hasn't scored on a major storm in this area in at least 12 yrs.

At least that long.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To bad the 12z ggem could not score one for once, Dam cold for the 01/02 event.

Yeah... if no one minds... I'd like to swap the title to be Jan1/2 ...this has morphed in timing to be smeared in favor of NYD and over night into Saturday morning, so we should reflect that -

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... if no one minds... I'd like to swap the title to be Jan1/2 ...this has morphed in timing to be smeared in favor of NYD and over night into Saturday morning, so we should reflect that -

I see no issue with it, Would be better seeing this is now pushed out.

[White Rain]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Be wary of the clown maps with this since there’s going to be a period of sleet. 

Was assuming sleet would be included in snowfall clown for this, but wasn’t thinking ice. Makes sense it would skew both however. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, White Rain said:

Was assuming sleet would be included in snowfall clown for this, but wasn’t thinking ice. Makes sense it would skew both however. 

Depends on the algorithm used to create the clown map. Some do all precip below 32 degrees as 10:1 snow. Even sleet in a Kuchera map is not going to be perfect. You would need temps aloft pushing 5C to get Kuchera down to a 2:1 sleet ratio.

[dendrite]

Nice quick burst of front end snow on the euro. Ptype maps even have SN over to BOS.

[dryslot]

12z Euro looks a few tics colder this run, May get some frozen precip into NMA this run.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Closer you are to the cold source, the better chance you have of seeing frozen precip.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Depends on the algorithm used to create the clown map. Some do all precip below 32 degrees as 10:1 snow. Even sleet in a Kuchera map is not going to be perfect. You would need temps aloft pushing 5C to get Kuchera down to a 2:1 sleet ratio.

I noticed on Pivotal that the snow totals took a decent jump here after the ptype algorithm had already flipped it to IP...was a red flag for me when I saw the big 10:1 numbers.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Closer you are to the cold source, the better chance you have of seeing frozen precip.

Yup. Snowing at BOS while raining in NE CT and IP/ZR at ORH??

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yup. Snowing at BOS while raining in NE CT and IP/ZR at ORH??

Typically swfe

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yup. Snowing at BOS while raining in NE CT and IP/ZR at ORH??

We do fairly well in your typical swfe... good spot for the cold air drain 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

52 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Closer you are to the cold source, the better chance you have of seeing frozen precip.

Sounds like a fortune cookie 

[DotRat_Wx]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Closer you are to the cold source, the better chance you have of seeing frozen precip.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Depends on the algorithm used to create the clown map. Some do all precip below 32 degrees as 10:1 snow. Even sleet in a Kuchera map is not going to be perfect. You would need temps aloft pushing 5C to get Kuchera down to a 2:1 sleet ratio.

Pure sleet that one can shovel, meaning w/o ZR mixing in, has for me always melted out very close to 3:1, similar to snowmaking product.  A situation like the Fort Kent ice storm in mid-December 1983 was different.  At the end of that event, our yard had a 3" crust (atop a solid 24" pack) consisted of a 1/2" layer of clear ice sandwiched between 1.25" layers of ZR-welded IP.  It was very difficult to get a core (had to somehow have the tube I use melt its way thru) and it came to 1.9".  Thus the 2.5" of IP-stuff had 1.4" LE for slightly less than 2:1.  (And with one half-decent snowfall on it, that crust would hold a running bull moose.)  

[mahk_webstah]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I noticed on Pivotal that the snow totals took a decent jump here after the ptype algorithm had already flipped it to IP...was a red flag for me when I saw the big 10:1 numbers.

Gyx not impressed with idea of snow for us

[HoarfrostHubb]

...I was promised a crippling ice storm and was told I downplay everything.  

[ma blizzard]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

...I was promised a crippling ice storm and was told I downplay everything.  

chief  nowhere to be found in this thread either today ....  

looks like classic nuisance glaze to rain NW of 90/495 after initial T-1" of snow / sleet 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

...I was promised a crippling ice storm and was told I downplay everything.  

And I was pitted against people, called out etc. Very very hurt. 

[alex]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Gyx not impressed with idea of snow for us

They have rain even for us! 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I was pitted against people, called out etc. Very very hurt. 

Wolf not howling tonight?

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I was pitted against people, called out etc. Very very hurt. 

It’s *almost* like you do this for a living.  Almost.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, alex said:

They have rain even for us! 

I think we will stay mostly snow. No scientific basis for that, just it looks like the models are getting colder each run for us. Still a long ways to go before go-time. The Wed/Thu stuff is more interesting too. Decent chance of 3-7" on the ground before this other thing even starts.