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MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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1 minute ago, Ellinwood said:

Eh. I was too high on amounts regionally for all but like 2 events a couple of years ago, lol.

Dude.  You NEVER get my area wrong.  Ever.  When you slap that drab ass grey over my crib its like the weather listens

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4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.

Great map.  And finally out of your dreaded grey mixing zone!

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8 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

I would be the last person to ask that question. I am going back and forth with sending my husband out to stock the pantry. I live just W of 270 and S of 15/340 the Ballenger Creek area. 

send him

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1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm in the sky blue stripe. 2-4. I'll take it. I promised my son it was gonna snow. :wacko:

Same here. Don't want to disappoint a 7 y/o.  Good luck! I'm prolly 2 miles west of you, a bit higher up.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Wanted to point something out when watching the details on the op runs. It’s not just the track if the surface low but also how much of an inverted trough feature there is. 12z euro track was slightly west but it was colder because there was less inverted trough and primary remnants. That trough prolongs and enhances the easterly fetch. We want the coastal to close off a circulation at low and mid levels as quick as possible.  A stronger inverted trough delays that some and kills is with an inside ideal track. 

Bingo. If that coastal pops earlier than forecast we all win.

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6 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.

20201216-17_second.png.c35a21d3a397cc764ba84768aa922e29.png

Pretty much in line with my thinking. 

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Just now, WVclimo said:

 

Damn, central PA is gonna get nuked. I'll try to get my mom, who used a 2011 potato as a smartphone, to send some pics from Harrisburg around 800 ft ASL

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

About 18” for everyone with the exception of that strange area missing right over your house

well dang it. oh well. better luck next storm. 

8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.

20201216-17_second.png.c35a21d3a397cc764ba84768aa922e29.png

gasp. you took away some of my digital snow! 

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14 minutes ago, H2O said:

If @MillvilleWx could come in here and sweet talk me to let me know things will be ok in a 300 word essay I'd feel better.  Be specific for the DCA area as in for the airport because thats close enough to where I live.  

 

If I don't see a summary then I know I'm out of the game like the Jets are out of the running for the Super Bowl

What I told you the Jets should be relegated? How does that fair on expectations? :lol:

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13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

48 hours ending Friday as there’s some light snow showers in the area until then.  

image.thumb.png.609f3306a9b12717fa2958234dd4b817.png

Nice juicy 2 "+ qpf riding the extreme  northern Md counties.  :popcorn:

Mby has definitely gotten several HECS with less.  2003,2010,2016,2014

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well dang it. oh well. better luck next storm. 

gasp. you took away some of my digital snow! 

"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." :devilsmiley:

It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.

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Just now, Ellinwood said:

"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." :devilsmiley:

It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.

i kid of course. thanks for taking the time to make a map! 

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2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." :devilsmiley:

It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.

4qc6cl.jpg.2a005374783937a0073eb5710825afbf.jpg

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

What I told you the Jets should be relegated? How does that fair on expectations? :lol:

Fudge GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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34 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I absolutely have since the beginning and i am well aware of it. That's why i was asking him. Either way i appreciate his insight, i just wish it would be said with less certainty. 

I was just thinking about this the other day.  What IS the very beginning?  I've been in here for ~ 8-9 years (mostly observing/learning) and for sharing obs/photos.  

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

At least he gave you a category :)

thank goodness. i was worried i would end up with sun and 60s while everyone was getting snow ;) 

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32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost went there, but I'm an admin.  Have to set the fucking standard around here for good language and good behavior.

It's not like Beethoven had good language :lol:

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Just now, WeatherShak said:

I was just thinking about this the other day.  What IS the very beginning?  I've been in here for ~ 8-9 years (mostly observing/learning) and for sharing obs/photos.  

This board started in 2009. Eastern preceded it and i joined it in 2004. I'm not sure when Eastern actually started. 

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5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.

20201216-17_second.png.c35a21d3a397cc764ba84768aa922e29.png

Good map, highlights the right areas

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FWIW: LWX updated their snow forecast for Wednesday/Thursday. 6hr increments. 

SnowAmt6hr_SFC7.png

SnowAmt6hr_SFC8.png

SnowAmt6hr_SFC9 (1).png

SnowAmt6hr_SFC10 (1).png

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