Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SI Mailman]

GFS give me 18 inches.  Where do I sign up?

[Northof78]

Not much to speak of N of the NJ/NY line...even north of Rt.80 QPF drops off quickly...

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I was wrong, we got 4. 

Congrats!

[jdj5211]

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....IMBY I've had anywhere from 6 inches to 29 inches the past 2 days of runs....

[HVSnowLover]

0Z Euro is big, it’s been trending  south and if trends more gfs may be onto something 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

Pretty much the case for every major storm 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

0Z Euro is big, it’s been trending  south and if trends more gfs may be onto something 

Its even more south this run but jackpots NYC

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Looks like models are converging on a central and north central jersey jackpot 

How is that so? Did you see Nam and RGEM? Not saying that they are right but what converging? 

[nflwxman]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

I don't think I've ever seen a dry slot location modeled correctly 40 hours before the a winter storm. If you see one modeled over your house on one of the mesos 12 hours before game time, then there may be cause to worry. These are very dynamic events laden with moisture. 

[jdj5211]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its even more south this run but jackpots NYC

0Z EURO hasn't run yet....

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

0Z EURO hasn't run yet....

He meant GooFuS

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal. 

It’s a nowcast event everywhere given how tight the gradient between the mix line and the sharp northern cutoff is. I’d agree at this point with 5-20 inches area wide as a forecast 

[kat5hurricane]

6 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Looks like models are converging on a central and north central jersey jackpot 

Models aren't converging on anything. The Nam and rgem are drastically different than the GFS and the Euro somewhere in between.  

[WarrenCtyWx]

It seems like the snow shield is shrinking in general.

[wizard021]

Gfs looks good for us, lock it in.

[MJO812]

Cmc has a nasty dry slot into NYC. The low is also more west. 

[HVSnowLover]

CMC is warm, LI flips to rain and HV clobbered. No model convergence tonight.

[friedmators]

GEFS Mean

[jm1220]

Seems like the GFS just weakens the storm overall in the face of the confluence which causes these southern outcomes. NAM/RGEM keep the dynamics going longer and are able to get them further north. We'll see which is right...

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has a nasty dry slot into NYC. The low is also more west. 

The low tracks west of ACY it’s honestly a miracle NYC stays snow with that track 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems like the GFS just weakens the storm overall in the face of the confluence which causes these southern outcomes. NAM/RGEM keep the dynamics going longer and are able to get them further north. We'll see which is right...

Not the GFS. I would still go with a CMC/Euro blend for now. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC is warm, LI flips to rain and HV clobbered. No model convergence tonight.

 

[Snowlover11]

gfs sucks, the cmc dryslots nyc.....

[kat5hurricane]

Not good trends for those of us near the coast tonight outside of the GFS, good for the LHV and northeast PA. If the Euro shifts north tonight, could be trouble.

[weatherlogix]

11 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Gfs looks good for us, lock it in.

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Not good trends for those of us near the coast tonight outside of the GFS, good for the LHV and northeast PA. If the Euro shifts north tonight, could be trouble.

Trends aren't good ?

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

gfs sucks, the cmc dryslots nyc.....

Still gives us near a foot.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Can't see the thermals but not too dissimilar to the RGEM? I guess a huge front end thump and then dryslot/mix this run. Can't say it enough-700 mb low determines if that'll be a problem or not. GFS brings that off S NJ, this and the NAM seem to bring it through N NJ.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

The GFS almost always consistently does this with these events though, it’s just consistently wrong .  The Euro has probably been the most consistent of all minus that wild 06Z run it had last night   

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

The cmc had been very consistent until this run bumped a bit further west

 

***this run not included in the gif