Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

No it’s not. 

[Rjay]

vs tonight's run

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS almost always consistently does this with these events though, it’s just consistently wrong .  The Euro has probably been the most consistent of all minus that wild 06Z run it had last night   

Hasn't it just been upgraded or is that still coming?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

vs tonight's run

 

Yuck. Hopefully that's wrong. A low tucked just west of ACY=no bueno.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yuck. Hopefully that's wrong. A low tucked just west of ACY=no bueno.

Someone can sell me on a 700 low in this setup doing that, not the surface low.  

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can't see the thermals but not too dissimilar to the RGEM? I guess a huge front end thump and then dryslot/mix this run. Can't say it enough-700 mb low determines if that'll be a problem or not. GFS brings that off S NJ, this and the NAM seem to bring it through N NJ.

 

[kat5hurricane]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trends aren't good ?

Still gives us near a foot.

The dry slot and warm tongue on becoming more prominent on some of the short range models with the jackpot moving further north. Still a good thump of snow but the trends are a little concerning.

The Euro will be telling. Need it to hold serve. Any further shifts north and the GFS is starting to look like an outlier.

[HVSnowLover]

I’ll stick with my plan of riding the Euro for now and then focusing on NAM tomorrow. Don’t feel like dealing with the other models. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The dry slot and warm tongue on becoming more prominent on some of the short range models with the jackpot moving further north. Still a good thump of snow but the trends are a little concerning.

The Euro will be telling. Need it to hold serve. 

And yet the GFS keeps moving south with the northern extent of the storm...

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yuck. Hopefully that's wrong. A low tucked just west of ACY=no bueno.

Outlier just like the gfs is

[MJO812]

HRDPS

Comes in like a wall with temps in the low to mid 20s

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Same model...same run....

 

 

Thanks. That 700mb low and track= big weenie run for NE PA/S NY/CT. Here it comes close but never really changes over, looks again to be more a dryslot issue after a huge initial thump.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRDPS

Comes in like a wall with temps in the low to mid 20s

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

If anyone wants to know why those CIPS analogs don’t hold much water the top current analogs in order are 12/14/03 12/05/03 12/25/02 01/26/11 01/03/03 12/05/02.   Of that bunch none really resemble this.  You can probably combine 12/14/03 and 01/26/11 and get something that has some similarities to this but not great 

[Barman49]

 

Real strong HP up north.

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[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If anyone wants to know why those CIPS analogs don’t hold much water the top current analogs in order are 12/14/03 12/05/03 12/25/02 01/26/11 01/03/03 12/05/02.   Of that bunch none really resemble this.  You can probably combine 12/14/03 and 01/26/11 and get something that has some similarities to this but not great 

What are your thoughts for this storm? 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

What are your thoughts for this storm? 

At the moment I would be reluctant to go over 10-11 inches in the 5 boroughs due to so many models showing the 700 low track being close.  I buy the possibility of the 700 low doing that because the system matures or consolidates late.  It’s not a true Miller B but it’s also not a true Miller A so the 700 low may be displaced NW of the surface low center.  I don’t buy anything putting a surface low over New Jersey though 

[MJO812]

[F5TornadoF5]

UKMET looks cooler and maybe slightly stronger? Hard to tell though.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wow, thats west. 

[Rjay]

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Wow, thats west. 

Yeah but how it gets there and where it’s west is a long way off from the GGEM.  I don’t see the mid or upper levels yet but a surface low over land just north of ORF is worlds different than one over land north of ACY

[USCG RS]

Just now, Rjay said:

I would say that's a pretty perfect spot for the entire subforum. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

UKMET looks cooler and maybe slightly stronger? Hard to tell though.

I would think it would be pretty warm for coast. Its a hugger it looks like. 

[Barman49]

I would think it would be pretty warm for coast. Its a hugger it looks like. 

Looks SE of the BM in the blown up frames. We need better images.

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[F5TornadoF5]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I would think it would be pretty warm for coast. Its a hugger it looks like. 

Looks like 540 is further southeast, could be my eyes playing tricks. Also, hard to tell without hours between frames. Looks more dynamic, depends on track and could drag in cool air.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

Looks SE of the BM in the blown up frames. We need better images.

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Need to see 700/850.  I would not look at UKMET snow maps since they've been mistakenly thinking the BL is over 32 on LI with the 700/850/surface lows tracking east. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Barman49 said:

Looks SE of the BM in the blown up frames. We need better images.

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It likely goes north or nne from the Delmarva coastline to Cape May or AC before heading due east to it's position in the 2nd frame.  There's no way of knowing how tucked it really is into the NJ coastline until we ger the better images.  I dropped a link in here earlier.  Use it around 12:20am.  Gn.   

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Barman49 said:

Looks SE of the BM in the blown up frames. We need better images.

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It probably hugs up until ACY and then goes east, similar to its last few runs I would think. 

[Barman49]

It likely goes north or nne from the Delmarva coastline to Cape May or AC before heading due east to it's position in the 2nd frame.  There's no way of knowing how tucked it really is into the NJ coastline until we ger the better images.  I dropped a link in here earlier.  Use it around 12:20am.  Gn.   

Yup. Need more frames.

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