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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Get a clue.

Mid levels will warm quickly so a quick couple inches followed by sleet/dry slot and then maybe another inch or two as the storm pulls east. 

And this assumes models don't keep trending west because if they do then it's more like 1-3" snow to rain. 

Once north of I-80 amounts go up significantly.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mid levels will warm quickly so a quick couple inches followed by sleet/dry slot and then maybe another inch or two as the storm pulls east. 

And this assumes models don't keep trending west because if they do then it's more like 1-3" snow to rain. 

First you said no way the models will trend north because of the block and now you think they will. Make up your mind.

This will be a good snow event for everyone.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

First you said no way the models will trend north because of the block and now you think they will. Make up your mind.

This will be a good snow event for everyone.

He’s clearly trolling. He occasionally has some good input. But this is total Bs. Unless he’s talking about the jersey shore 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First you said no way the models will trend north because of the block and now you think they will. Make up your mind.

This will be a good snow event for everyone.

Clearly I was wrong, this s/w is no joke and the confluence isn't enough to offset it.

I would love to be proven wrong now and no I'm not trolling.

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F5TornadoF5

F5TornadoF5

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look , the south shore of Brooklyn might mix ( my area) but we will still get several inches or even more.  It will all depend on the track of the system and the banding.  The models will not pinpoint  the banding correctly.

Agreed, Still think most on this sub forum get more than 6in except eastern Long Island and immediate jersey shore. Front end thump looks pretty impressive. 3k front end thump on nam depiction is no joke verbatim. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Look , the south shore of Brooklyn might mix ( my area) but we will still get several inches or even more.  It will all depend on the track of the system and the banding.  The models will not pinpoint  the banding correctly.

I wouldn’t automatically assume your going to mix. When all is said and done 95% of your precip likely falls as snow with maybe a period of light sleet and freezing drizzle which will hardly be noticed. Your certainly not going above freezing. 
The CAD is going to be intense on NE winds. For those that do not think it’s possible look at November 18. Watch that wind direction. 
south shore Suffolk and the jersey shore are a different story being more open to warming on that wind 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

Agreed, Still think most on this sub forum get more than 6in except eastern Long Island and immediate jersey shore. Front end thump looks like no joke. 3k nam depiction is no joke verbatim. 

Many of our past storms had a big front end thump and then shuts off.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t automatically assume your going to mix. When all is said and done 95% of your precip likely falls as snow with maybe a period of light sleet and freezing drizzle which will hardly be noticed. Your certainly not going above freezing. 
The CAD is going to be intense on NE winds. For those that do not think it’s possible look at November 18. Watch that wind direction. 
south shore Suffolk and the jersey shore are a different story being more open to warming on that wind 

Nam has me in the upper 20s to low 30s. 850s warm up during the heaviest precip.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para gfs finally on board

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png

sn10_acc.us_ne (2).png

6-12 inches is a very good storm for the city and immediate area for this time of year, and would be a big deal after years of nada. However, a few more shifts would not bode well. But really, it's been fairly consistent that we are going to get something substantial, albeit not a 2 foot crush job. it should be significant enough. It's been nice to have something else to talk about in these tough times. Stay safe out there.

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