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Bostonseminole

November 2020 Discussion

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol...ya they shut em down at least a year ago, maybe more?  We learn something new everyday.  

Ya its been a couple years. A few of them made a whole new forum but I think even that was dissolved.

Some of the mods on that wer power hungry for sure. I ended up getting a warning for sticking up for the nova Scotia people posting on the new england thread.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like somewhat of an inverse from last season...when things looked good through the first week of December, then went to shit.

Let’s hope that’s it instead of 1999-2000 or 2011-2012. :lol:

Im hoping it’s closer to 1975-1976....garbage pattern for a time in November and the first half of December was repulsive with an AK pig but then it retrograded into an Aleutian low and we rocked the 2nd half of December. Huge pre-Xmas multi-wave event that gave BOS like 17” or 18”. 

Kind of weird that in contrast to typical Nina, that year produced an Aleutian low for quite a chunk of the winter (a lot of January had one too). 

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I dunno .. mixed emotions

A .. seems the GEFs have a pretty significant over all, multi-mass-field modality underway during these next 10 days ... and it doesn't end really soon ...reaching a 'totality' out there around Dec 7.. AO with a neg 2 reposition, and an NAO with at least that much...even if they stop at or shy on the plus side of neutral, that's an awful lot of cap spacing to suggest a completely unperturbed PV.  Then, the PNA is the biggest atm index on the planet and it with it's quatra hemispheric scale going -1 to + 2 SD ...uh... hm, there could and probably should be a correction event ( or series doing so in the aggregate ..) ... preferably during around the Dec 1 -- usually on the temporal boundary of the 2/3rd periods of a mode-change interval when the threshold breaks on those H.A's...   Indeed, we see a siggy continental multi-stream ordeal wound up like its' trying to find the basement of Detroit D7+ ...  that may be it... buuut,

B ... the flow should not be wound up into such r-wave lengths that are that short during an ongoing velocity surplussed hemisphere ... which we have. That's why we have such a progressive bias dating back.. pretty much 10 years at this f'n point ... save for roll-back spring blocks that happen like wash-back to sea after a tsunamis torrent.  I wonder if all of mankind and the few alien Mets that walk among them may not even be away that a 'stretch' correction or a progressive stress may emerge observable as that whole thing gets say D5 ... 

C ... Persistence and that HC are inherently in conflict with any kind of retrograde/blocking hemisphere because the rest state, itself, is too much velocity to support/sustained curved surfaces..it's why we have fewer and fewer true stall deep layer closures ...    It's been years folks!  Years...since a bomb crawled from 50 clicks SE of ISP to off CC over 24 hours ( Dec 1992 is an obvious example... or Apr 1997...etc)....  There's a reason for that... It's hard to get those sustained when the velocity is so strong all the available planetary torque is already conserved in the larger scaled super synoptic structures.... 

All the points about are clad enough ... in my mind.. .but they are conflict to some degree...

 

 

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna take some time though to reload Canada. First week of December will probably be a furnace across the CONUS even if we’re starting to see some changes in the PAC. 

Twitter world is starting to go crazy about the first week of December but after what we've learned from last year there is a helluva lot more than just the pattern "looking good". When you look at the forecast H5 height anomalies I actually expected much more of a colder look at the sfc but that just doesn't seem to be there. It does look like we'll get a brief cold shot but that is behind the system . Also too many hints for cyclogenesis to be fairly far west but that is something that can certainly change. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Twitter world is starting to go crazy about the first week of December but after what we've learned from last year there is a helluva lot more than just the pattern "looking good". When you look at the forecast H5 height anomalies I actually expected much more of a colder look at the sfc but that just doesn't seem to be there. It does look like we'll get a brief cold shot but that is behind the system . Also too many hints for cyclogenesis to be fairly far west but that is something that can certainly change. 

Yeah I’m not buying first week of December. Too early imho as the air masses are putrid. I mean, anything is possible with perfect timing but I don’t think you are going to get the source region in better shape until post-12/5

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not buying first week of December. Too early imho as the air masses are putrid. I mean, anything is possible with perfect timing but I don’t think you are going to get the source region in better shape until post-12/5

It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into Canada...so if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot. 

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18z EURO was a little cooler and tried to get some front end snow going in NNE on Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.  Not much but even an inch or two would be appreciated.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-6392000.thumb.png.2d98c9388f5c7275dad8074ddc6a72d6.png

 

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z EURO was a little cooler and tried to get some front end snow going in NNE on Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.  Not much but even an inch or two would be appreciated.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-6392000.thumb.png.2d98c9388f5c7275dad8074ddc6a72d6.png

 

Move that south a few hundred miles and we’re good! :)

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That system is poised to drop a hefty amount of snow through central eastern Quebec and especially Labrador. Upwards of 24+” possible in Goose Bay. Doesn’t mean much to us but it is nice to see good snow pack coming down from the source region. Laying the framework.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Move that south a few hundred miles and we’re good! :)

If we can get a decent snowpack in Quebec and Ontario, just maybe it will help us down the road?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not buying first week of December. Too early imho as the air masses are putrid. I mean, anything is possible with perfect timing but I don’t think you are going to get the source region in better shape until post-12/5

Agree. I would expect to get going around the second week of December.

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56 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

If we can get a decent snowpack in Quebec and Ontario, just maybe it will help us down the road?

Doesn’t look so bad...

 

 

 

245B8D5E-7652-4471-BC20-C124352914F5.gif

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Doesn’t look so bad...

 

 

 

245B8D5E-7652-4471-BC20-C124352914F5.gif

I mean does that really mean anything scientifically or are we just spanking ourselves bc we are bored.

2018-2019 we had  pattern  that put 10 feet of snow down in S Canada , that just led to bridge jumping From a persistent gradient pattern and mid level lows to Watertown NY For 3 months 

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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean does that really mean anything scientifically or are we just spanking ourselves bc we are bored.

2018-2019 we had  pattern  that put 10 feet of snow down in S Canada , that just led to bridge jumping From a persistent gradient pattern and mid level lows to Watertown NY For 3 months 

I was just pointing out that we didn’t need the snow in Canada-it’s there. 

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